Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).</li><li>Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was down 8.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.6% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 6.0%.</li><li><p>Top 10 Performers: ARVL, ZAPP, NAAS, VMC, PEGY, QS, LCID, OUST, EVGO, COMM</p><p></p></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was down 8.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.6% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 6.0%.Top 10 Performers: ARVL, ZAPP, NAAS, VMC, PEGY, QS, LCID, OUST, EVGO, COMM

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Gold has signalled a false breakout and is likely to tread water for a couple of months.</li>
<li>More strength ahead for the Japanese Yen and weakness for the Japanese markets?</li>
<li>Copper signals further lows to come unless it rallies soon</li>
</ul>


Gold has signalled a false breakout and is likely to tread water for a couple of months.
More strength ahead for the Japanese Yen and weakness for the Japanese markets?
Copper signals further lows to come unless it rallies soon


False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

<ul><li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&amp;P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024 (Fig 1).</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing the ~8% rise in the XLE and the ~6% rise in the Russell 2000.</li><li>The XLE’s 1H24 performance likely reflects oil prices trading in the $75 - $80/bbl band for much of the first six months of 2024 and natural gas prices which were negatively impacted by mild winter weather. </li></ul>

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&amp;P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024 (Fig 1).The S&amp;P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing the ~8% rise in the XLE and the ~6% rise in the Russell 2000.The XLE’s 1H24 performance likely reflects oil prices trading in the $75 - $80/bbl band for much of the first six months of 2024 and natural gas prices which were negatively impacted by mild winter weather. 

US Oil & Gas - Seeking a Balance Between Growth and Capital Returns to Shareholders

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>Japan perks up as machine tool orders rise y/y for the first time in nearly 19 months</li>
<li>US Interest Rate cut expectations rise to a “sure thing” in September</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events impacting our investment themes or outlook
Japan perks up as machine tool orders rise y/y for the first time in nearly 19 months
US Interest Rate cut expectations rise to a “sure thing” in September


United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).

Water Tower Research

False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.

Rikki Malik

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

US Oil & Gas - Seeking a Balance Between Growth and Capital Returns to Shareholders

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024. The S&P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing...

Water Tower Research

Overview #6 - Japanese Data Perks Up.

Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.

Rikki Malik

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).

Water Tower Research

False Breakouts and Breakdowns - The Nikkei, Gold, Copper and the JPY

​Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.

Rikki Malik

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

US Oil & Gas - Seeking a Balance Between Growth and Capital Returns to Shareholders

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has underperformed the S&P500 and Russell 2000 indices during 2024. The S&P 500 has gained ~18%, outpacing...

Water Tower Research

Overview #6 - Japanese Data Perks Up.

​Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.

Rikki Malik

Gold's false breakout may lead to a period of stagnation, while the Japanese Yen strengthens and copper faces potential new lows.

Recent events show Japan's economy improving with machine tool orders rising, while US interest rate cut in September is now highly expected.