Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 3.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.2% of the index) was up 2.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.1% of index) was up 2.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: ZEV, ORGN, GIGA, GTEC, PSIX, GEVO, GCEI, COMM, ASPN, FF</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (up 3.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.4%).Energy Technology (13.8% of the index) was up 3.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.2% of the index) was up 2.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 2.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.1% of index) was up 2.7%.Top 10 Performers: ZEV, ORGN, GIGA, GTEC, PSIX, GEVO, GCEI, COMM, ASPN, FF

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.7% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.04%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was down 2.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.3% of the index) was up 0.9%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.2% of index) was down 3.3%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: VIHD, DCFC, IPWR, COMM, BIOF, WAVE, TGEN, <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">LIQT, ASPN, FL</span></li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.7% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 0.04%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.4%).Energy Technology (13.7% of the index) was down 2.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (46.3% of the index) was up 0.9%, ClimateTech Mining was down 0.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.2% of index) was down 3.3%.Top 10 Performers: VIHD, DCFC, IPWR, COMM, BIOF, WAVE, TGEN, LIQT, ASPN, FL

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.</li>
<li>Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.</li>
<li>Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.</li>
</ul>


CPI dropped to 2.9% YoY in July, the lowest since March 2021, while Core CPI cooled to 3.2% YoY, reflecting a broad-based softening in inflation.
Retail sales surged 1% MoM, driven by a volatile 3.6% rise in motor vehicle sales, signaling resilient consumer spending despite mixed economic conditions.
Manufacturing and industrial production contracted, pushing the GDPNow forecast down to 2.4%, highlighting persistent weakness in these sectors.


Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 3.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 2.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 5.4%).

Water Tower Research

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Focus on Eos Energy Enterprises, Inc. (EOSE)

The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 0.04%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 1.3%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.4%).

Water Tower Research

Mint Macro Roundup: U.S. Inflation Dips Below 3% Amid Stronger Retail Sales

U.S. inflation fell below 3% for the first time in over three years. Despite mixed signals from the manufacturing sector, retail sales showed...

Mint Finance