Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).</li>
<li>Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.</li>
<li>We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks we've discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and mounting evidence that suggests the pullback lows may be in (4/30/24 Compass).
Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below.
We continue to believe the lows are in, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&amp;P 500 as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market.


Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.</li>
<li>Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons</li>
<li>We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback.
Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&amp;P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market


Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

<ul>
<li>While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap</li>
<li>4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.</li>
</ul>


While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&amp;P 500
Since late-February, we've discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
4920-4950 is now support near last week's lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 5.4%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.0% of the index) was down by 6.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (58.1% of the index) was down by 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (23.4% of index) was down 6.7%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: FSR, PNPN, VTNR, AMMP, TLO, WML, KNDI, GOEV, BMI, CRGE</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 5.4%).Energy Technology (12.0% of the index) was down by 6.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (58.1% of the index) was down by 2.2%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.9%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (23.4% of index) was down 6.7%.Top 10 Performers: FSR, PNPN, VTNR, AMMP, TLO, WML, KNDI, GOEV, BMI, CRGE

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 19, 2024

<ul><li>The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.6%).</li><li>Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down by 4.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (57.1% of the index) was down by 1.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (24.1% of index) was down 2.2%.</li><li>Top 10 Performers: WAVE, AMRS, ZEV, TPCS, KULR, VIEW, CRGE, NHHH, EAF, AGX</li></ul>

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 2.0% W/W versus the S&amp;P 500 Index (down 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 0.6%).Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down by 4.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (57.1% of the index) was down by 1.9%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (24.1% of index) was down 2.2%.Top 10 Performers: WAVE, AMRS, ZEV, TPCS, KULR, VIEW, CRGE, NHHH, EAF, AGX

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 12, 2024

United States

The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. The index was developed with a base value of 135.00 as of December 31, 1986.

Russell 2000 Index (RTY INDEX)

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight Despite Still Being Bullish on $XBI....

Vermilion Research

Are the Lows "In" For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish (RS for defensives $XLP, $XLU, $XLV below October 2023 lows among many other...

Vermilion Research

Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

Shift Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Tech to market weight $XLK; Upgrading Industrials $XLI to Overweight; Upgrading Utilities $XLU to...

Vermilion Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 19, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 3.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 3.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.8%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research

Weekly Sustainable Investing Surveyor - Week Ended April 12, 2024

The WTR Sustainable Index was up down 2.0% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 1.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 2.9%), and the Nasdaq Index (down...

Water Tower Research