Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The first quarter 2024 earnings for Newmont Corporation presents an operational and strategic snapshot for the company in a balanced manner.</li><li>To lay out the salient attributes and challenges of investing in Newmont: Positively, Newmont executives highlight the company's robust operational performance for the 1st quarter 2024.</li><li>Despite experiencing the loss of three employees due to on-site incidents, Newmont still looks set to meet its 2024 guidance, thereby proving the underlying stability of its operations.</li></ul>

The first quarter 2024 earnings for Newmont Corporation presents an operational and strategic snapshot for the company in a balanced manner.To lay out the salient attributes and challenges of investing in Newmont: Positively, Newmont executives highlight the company's robust operational performance for the 1st quarter 2024.Despite experiencing the loss of three employees due to on-site incidents, Newmont still looks set to meet its 2024 guidance, thereby proving the underlying stability of its operations.

Newmont Corporation: What Is Its Asset Divestments Strategy? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Newmont Corporation recently released its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings and 2024 guidance.</li><li>Operationally, the company managed to produce 5.5 million ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,444 an ounce with additional production of nearly 900,000 gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead, and zinc in 2023.</li><li>This performance delivered adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 billion and allowed the company to return more than $1.4 billion to shareholders, ending the year with liquidity of above $6 billion.</li></ul>

Newmont Corporation recently released its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings and 2024 guidance.Operationally, the company managed to produce 5.5 million ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,444 an ounce with additional production of nearly 900,000 gold equivalent ounces from copper, silver, lead, and zinc in 2023.This performance delivered adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 billion and allowed the company to return more than $1.4 billion to shareholders, ending the year with liquidity of above $6 billion.

Newmont Corporation: Will Its Balanced Capital Allocation Strategy Work? - Major Drivers

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today saw 65mm shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.</li>
<li>That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. </li>
<li>Furthermore, the settlement logistics <em>appear</em> to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). </li>
</ul>


Today saw 65mm shares of Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) print at the close and 85+mm shares crossed in blocks post-close. There was another 15mm shares traded in additional excess volume.
That suggests a certain lack of "risk taking" by passive managers, increasing today's trade in NY. 
Furthermore, the settlement logistics appear to indicate an interesting trade to do 7 November (worth checking with your custodian/broker). 


Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allkem-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Allkem Ltd (AKE AU)</a> saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. </li>
<li>Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.</li>
<li>But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Allkem Ltd (AKE AU) saw its last day of trading on 21 December. There was large volume at the close as one major index provider gave it the boot. 
Another delayed their treatment at the last minute, and eliminated a cross-flow.
But there is still a lot of net buy flow tomorrow (3 Jan) and the next day in the US. Perhaps more than I expected. 


Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 4 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmg-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13961:1" rel="noopener">MMG (1208 HK)</a> announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.</li>
<li>Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. </li>
<li>MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.</li>
</ul>


On 4 June, MMG (1208 HK) announced plans to raise HK$9.1bn (US$1.2bn) through 2 rights shares for every five existing shares rights offering, with a rights price of HK$2.62.
Since the rights issue announcement, MMG shares have declined by 16.2% to the undisturbed price and by 8.0% compared to the TERP of HK$3.48 per share. 
MMG’s trading pattern has diverged from Link REIT/Yuexiu’s rights trading due to the statement on 18 May that the Peruvian mine is not liable for a 30% withholding tax.


United States

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. distributes and processes steel and aluminum. The Company's products include carbon, alloy, stainless and specialty steel, aluminum, brass, and copper.  Reliance operates processing and distribution centers throughout the United States. Reliance Steel & Aluminum operates in Spain.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a diversified carbon-steel steel producer and metals recycler in the U.S, located in Fort Wayne, IN. The Company's operating segments include Steel Operations, Metals Recycling & Ferrous Resources Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. Steel Dynamics products include flat rolled steel sheet, engineered bar special-bar-quality, structural beams.

Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious metals royalties.  The Company seeks to acquire existing royalties or to finance projects that are in production or near production in exchange for royalty interests.  Royal Gold Inc.'s gold-focused portfolio contains royalties ranging from those in production and development to those in the evaluation and exploration stages.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

Southern Copper Corporation conducts mining operations in Peru and Mexico.  The Company owns and operates open pit mines and metallurgical complexes that produce copper, molybdenum, zinc, and precious metals.

United States Steel Corporation operates as an integrated steel producer. The Company manufactures flat-rolled and tubular products with production operations in North America and Europe. United States Steel serves the automotive, appliance, container, industrial machinery, construction, and oil and gas industries.

Alcoa Corporation manufactures metal products. The Company produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products. Alcoa serves aluminum industry worldwide.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is an American iron ore mining company. The Company supplies iron ore pellets, lumps and fines to blast furnaces in the global steel industry. Cliffs is in the process of expanding its customer base to Electric Arc Furnaces.

Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, fabricates, and distributes stainless steels, titanium, and specialty metal alloys.  Carpenter processes basic metal alloying elements into finished products such as billets, bars, rods, and various special shapes. The Company also manufactures engineered products such as ceramics and metal injected molded designs.

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

JFE Holdings, Inc. is a holding company which was established through the merger of NKK Corp and Kawasaki Steel Corp.  The Company manages and conducts its subsidiaries' business, which is steel production and integrated engineering services.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Newmont Mining Corporation acquires, explores, and develops mineral properties. The Company produces gold from operations in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand and Mexico. Newmont also mines and processes copper in Indonesia.

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Newmont Mining (NEM US)

Newmont Corporation: What Is Its Asset Divestments Strategy? - Major Drivers

The first quarter 2024 earnings for Newmont Corporation presents an operational and strategic snapshot for the company in a balanced manner. To...

Baptista Research

Newmont Corporation: Will Its Balanced Capital Allocation Strategy Work? - Major Drivers

Newmont Corporation recently released its fourth-quarter 2023 earnings and 2024 guidance. Operationally, the company managed to produce 5.5...

Baptista Research

Newcrest/Newmont - More Selling on the NCM Means More Buying on NEM, And Settlement Logistics Matter

The NCM selldown was larger than I expected as global passive avoids gap risk. That means a bigger arb risk and more action at the NEM close today....

Travis Lundy

Allkem + Livent = Arcadium : Updated Expected Index Flows

Flows for Livent-become-Arcadium Lithium over the next 3 days are relatively prodigious. This comes from upweights in US indices not matched by...

Travis Lundy

MMG (1208 HK): Rights Trade Playbook

The rights start trading on 24 June. We expect MMG shares to claw back some losses over the rights trading period, particularly towards the end.

Arun George

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