European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 48.7% (vs. 46.6% as of 30 September); GBL, 40.9% (vs. 40.7%);
Heineken Holding, 14% (14.9%); Industrivärden C, 2.4% (0.9%); Investor B, 2.8% (vs. 2.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 31.7% (vs. 35%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 22.5% (vs. 26%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Rio Tinto recommended a price of $5.85 on the US stock and $8.60 on the CDIs, totaling about AU$10 billion or US$6.7 billion, with a 90% premium to the undisturbed price</li><li>The deal is all cash and is expected to close in mid-2025, pending various approvals including shareholder and board approval</li><li>Rio Tinto's acquisition of Arcadium is seen as a countercyclical move, paying for optionality and long-term potential rather than immediate returns, reflecting a shift in their M&amp;A strategy.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Rio Tinto recommended a price of $5.85 on the US stock and $8.60 on the CDIs, totaling about AU$10 billion or US$6.7 billion, with a 90% premium to the undisturbed priceThe deal is all cash and is expected to close in mid-2025, pending various approvals including shareholder and board approvalRio Tinto's acquisition of Arcadium is seen as a countercyclical move, paying for optionality and long-term potential rather than immediate returns, reflecting a shift in their M&amp;A strategy.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

What does Rio’s brine bet mean for spod?

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.6% (vs. 46.2% as of August 30); GBL, 40.7% (vs. 41.1%);
Heineken Holding, 14.9% (vs. 16.5%); Industrivärden C, 0.9% (vs. 1.7%); Investor B, 2.6% (vs. 1.9%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35% (vs. 35.7%). Rio DLC spread widened to 26% (vs. 19.8%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.2% (vs. 45.3% as of August 9); GBL, 41.1% (vs. 42.2%); </li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16%); Industrivärden C, 1.7% (vs. 2.2%); Investor B, 1.9% (vs.7.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.7% (vs. 34.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 19.8% (vs. 22.1%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 46.2% (vs. 45.3% as of August 9); GBL, 41.1% (vs. 42.2%); 
Heineken Holding, 16.5% (vs. 16%); Industrivärden C, 1.7% (vs. 2.2%); Investor B, 1.9% (vs.7.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.7% (vs. 34.6%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 19.8% (vs. 22.1%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August'24 Report

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during October. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What does Rio’s brine bet mean for spod?

Rio Tinto agrees to acquire Arcadium for $6.7 billion in a cash deal, with a focus on long-term value and securing a position in the cost curve.

Money of Mine

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during September. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: August'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos did not follow a clear trend during August. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

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