European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.</li>
<li>The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.</li>
<li>Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.5%; GBL, 39.1%; Heineken Holding, 16.4%; Industrivärden C, 6.6%; Investor B, 15%; Porsche Automobile Holding, 43.8%.
The spread of Rio Tinto DLC tightened to 19%. Rio Tinto is a candidate for an Australian top hat structure.
Interesting situations: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and Rio DLC.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore continued to operate in its band from 95-130 USD/ton over the last few years, with a recent drop from 120 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton on tepid China data.</li>
<li>With incremental news on China's stimulus in the property and infrastructure sectors, we remain confident that iron ore will return to 120 USD/ton in the short term. </li>
<li>We also remain bullish on the 65-62 spread, which has expanded to the teens. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23731:1" rel="noopener">Vale (VALE US)</a>  are good plays on the spread.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore continued to operate in its band from 95-130 USD/ton over the last few years, with a recent drop from 120 USD/ton to 105 USD/ton on tepid China data.
With incremental news on China's stimulus in the property and infrastructure sectors, we remain confident that iron ore will return to 120 USD/ton in the short term. 
We also remain bullish on the 65-62 spread, which has expanded to the teens. Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) and Vale (VALE US)  are good plays on the spread.


Iron Ore: Disappointing Data Pushed Price Down to 105, Bounce To 120 On Further Stimulus From China

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.</li>
<li>Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.</li>
<li>The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.</li>
</ul>


Low-Cost producer of copper and zinc with two of the biggest  ten mines in the world.
Recent mine acquisition and increased production at existing mines will grow earnings.
The supply and demand imbalance in copper will lead to higher prices.


Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2024-high-conviction-junior-copper-miners" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:122425" rel="noopener">2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners</a> garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.</li>
<li>Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN) </a>has performed strongest +22% while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arras-minerals-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40384:1" rel="noopener">Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY)</a> has been a laggard at -18% YTD.</li>
</ul>


Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide an update on our favorite junior copper names.
Copper prices have started to to tick up (+5% YTD) on the back of gold making new all-time highs late in 1Q24, and more importantly squeezed global supply.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +22% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -18% YTD.


Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/entree-resources-ltd-3aeeb68c-80d0-4ada-822e-898883fbb28e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26727:1" rel="noopener">Entree Resources (ETG CN)</a> is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.</li>
<li>Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?</li>
</ul>



Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) has one of its most prized assets in Mongolia. The Oyu Tolgoi mine has an 80-year mine-life and will ramp up significantly in coming years.

Entree Resources (ETG CN) is the last remaining hurdle to acquire after the successful integration of Turquoise Hill in late 2022.
Entree just released a batch of 2022 (!) drilling results, one month before an arbitration deadline. Why was it released now? Will Rio finally move on Entree before the deadline?


Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Australia

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. explores for and produces iron ore. The Company conducts business worldwide.

BHP Group Ltd operates as an international resources company. The Company offers mineral exploration and production, including coal, iron ore, gold, titanium, ferroalloys, nickel, and copper concentrate, as well as petroleum exploration, production, and refining. BHP Group serves customers worldwide.

Newcrest Mining Limited is a gold mining, exploration and production company. The Company is geographically focused in Australia, the Pacific region and Asia. Newcrest Mining operates projects within six provinces in four countries, focusing on the Cadia East and Lihir MOPU expansion projects and the Wafi Golpu and Namosi greenfield projects.

Northern Star Resources Ltd manufactures precious metals. The Company provides mining and production of gold. Northern Star Resources serves customers in Australia and North America.

South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The Company produces alumina, aluminum, coal, manganese, nickel, silver, lead, and zinc. South32 conducts business globally.

Rio Tinto PLC operates as a mining company. The Company focuses on mining for aluminum, borates, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, salt, and zircon. Rio Tinto serves clients worldwide.

Glencore plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups, metals and minerals, energy products, and agricultural products. Glencore offers its products and services around the world.

BlueScope Steel Limited supplies steel products and solutions. The Company manufactures steel slabs, plates, hot and cold rolled coils, and coated and painted strip products for building and construction, automotive, whitegoods, and manufacturing applications. BlueScope Steel serves customers in Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.

OZ Minerals Ltd. is an Australian based mining company with a focus on copper. The Company owns and operates the Prominent Hill copper-gold mine and the Carrapateena copper-gold project located in South Australia and has a number of equity interests in listed resource companies.

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

Vedanta Limited mines, produces, and exports base metals. The Company mines and distributes metals such as zinc, iron ore, copper, silver, and aluminium, as well as operates power plants. Vedanta markets its products worldwide.

Glencore Plc is a diversified natural resources company. The Company operates in three groups: Metals and Minerals, Energy Products, and Agricultural Products. Glencore Plc offers its products and services around the world.

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

China Steel Corporation manufactures and markets a variety of steel products. The main products are hot rolled coils and sheets, cold rolled coils and sheets, wire rods, steel plates, and steel bars.

China Hongqiao Group Ltd. manufactures aluminum products. The Company's aluminum products consist of molten aluminum alloy, aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum busbars.

Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets a variety of iron and steel products including cold rolled plates and coils, hot rolled plates and coils, seamless steel tubes, high-speed wire rods, and steel billets.  The company also operates in related energy production businesses.

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. (JSPL) manufactures sponge iron, mild steel, and cement. The Company also produces power, conducts mining operations for iron ore and coal, and explores for natural gas and oil. JSPL, with its diverse resources, also contributes to the construction of infrastructure.

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Interesting situations, in my view: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Iron Ore: Disappointing Data Pushed Price Down to 105, Bounce To 120 On Further Stimulus From China

We provide our take on the China data like TSF, auto sales and property that led to the sell-off in iron ore. We provide our rationale for an iron...

Sameer Taneja

Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

The stock is breaking out of a 3 year range today, with copper prices continuing to move up. We continue to like this stock and also Sumitomo...

Rikki Malik

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have generally widened during July. Interesting situations, in my view: Heineken Holding/Heineken, Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Iron Ore: Disappointing Data Pushed Price Down to 105, Bounce To 120 On Further Stimulus From China

We provide our take on the China data like TSF, auto sales and property that led to the sell-off in iron ore. We provide our rationale for an iron...

Sameer Taneja

Mmg Limited 1208.HK - It's Got It All - Copper, EV's, and AI!

The stock is breaking out of a 3 year range today, with copper prices continuing to move up. We continue to like this stock and also Sumitomo...

Rikki Malik

Junior Copper Miners: An Update After 1Q24

​Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Rio: JV Partner in Mongolia Releases Incredible Copper Grades One Month Before Arbitration Deadline

Rio Tinto still has an "annoying" third partner in its world-class Oyu Tolgoi mining project in Mongolia. Entree Resources is a prime takeover target.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Update on favorite junior copper miners as copper prices rise, Entree Resources (+22%) outperforms while Arras Minerals (-18%) lags.