Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, James Hardie Industries, Endeavour, Goodman.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Nov 15th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD24.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in ANZ, James Hardie Industries, Endeavour, Goodman.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): ANZ, James Hardie Industries, Endeavour, Goodman

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc-2f9bfa3a-65a7-41f9-a157-e59603846420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40439:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US)</a> scheme meeting relating to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.</li>
<li>The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  </li>
<li>Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. </li>
</ul>


The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.  
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain. 


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto (RIO AU)</a>'s DLC.</li>
<li>Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryohin-keikaku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1" rel="noopener">Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>, but this may not last. It has worked very well. </li>
<li>Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>'s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.</li>
</ul>


At a time when the LSE has dumbed down the checks and balances for listed companies, now may be the right time to consider collapsing Rio Tinto (RIO AU)'s DLC.
Re: Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal, long Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) vs. Fast Retailing (9983 JP), but this may not last. It has worked very well. 
Unless we see a significant (and sustainable) reversal in WH Group (288 HK)'s US/Mexican ops in the interim results, now hardly appears the opportune time for a Smithfield IPO.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

<ul>
<li>Just shy of three years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP (BHP AU)</a> announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP "simpler and more agile".</li>
<li>Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21141:1" rel="noopener">Unilever (UNA NA)</a> collapsed its DLC; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/royal-dutch-shell-plc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:792:1" rel="noopener">Royal Dutch Shell </a> unified its A and B lines in 2021. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio (RIO AU/LN)</a> is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK's listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.</li>
</ul>


Just shy of three years ago, BHP (BHP AU) announced the unification of its dual-headed corporate structure to make BHP "simpler and more agile".
Collapsing DLCs/share-classes was all the rage back then. The prior year, Unilever (UNA NA) collapsed its DLC; and Royal Dutch Shell  unified its A and B lines in 2021. 

Rio (RIO AU/LN) is one of only a handful of remaining DLCs. Renewed investor calls to unwind the DLC and the recent UK's listing regime reform necessitate a rethink.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The "Unification"

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); </li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 44.5% (vs. 46.8%); GBL, 43.6% (vs. 42.9%); Heineken Holding, 18.4% (vs. 18.3%); 
Industrivärden C, 2.4% (vs. 2.5%); Investor B, 9.9% (vs. 12%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 35.8% (vs. 35.3%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.7% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Australia

Rio Tinto Limited is an international mining company.  The Company has interests in mining for aluminum, borax, coal, copper, gold, iron ore, lead, silver, tin, uranium, zinc, titanium dioxide feedstock, diamonds, talc and zircon. Dually-listed company with RIO LN.

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Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Nov 15th): ANZ, James Hardie Industries, Endeavour, Goodman

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in ANZ, James Hardie Industries, Endeavour, Goodman.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

A tempting wide gross spread comes with a health warning due to a long-dated offer with potential regulatory and shareholder approvals risks.

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Rio Tinto, Ryohin Keikaku/Fast Retailing, WH Group, ThaiBev/F&N, PCCW

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/LN): Thinking About The "Unification"

At a time when the LSE has opted to dumb down the checks and balances for listed companies on its bourse, now may be just the right time to...

David Blennerhassett

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: June'24 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during June. What seems interesting: Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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