Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There is a possibility that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.</li>
<li>However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company's guidance of ¥122bn.</li>
<li>We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.</li>
</ul>


There is a possibility that Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s revenue and OP in 1QFY24 could surpass the consensus estimates by 8% and 21%, respectively.
However, the outlook for the next three quarters may be different, as consensus appears inflated with annual OP expectations of ¥154.5bn compared to the company's guidance of ¥122bn.
We find medium term consensus expectations unrealistic, leading to potential downside for Oriental Land. We expect FY+2 EV/OP to decline from 46x to 20-30x.


Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>'s price performance.</li>
<li>The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.</li>
<li>Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the proposed Tokyo Disney Sea expansion in 2015, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s price perfromance has significantly diverged from Oriental Land (4661 JP)'s price performance.
The valuation disparity may result from the Disney Sea expansion's impact, possibly due to Keisei Electric's value-oriented investor base.
Fantasy Springs' opening could resolve the valuation distortion, leading to potential rewards in a Long Keisei Electric and Short Oriental Land trade.


Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es</li>
<li>NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX -0.8% on Friday, -1.8%WoW as recession fears resurface post -ve EU PMI, amidst rate hikes to combat inflation; Carmax +10% on earnings beat, but used car px falling
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 reflecting disparity between Japan rates vs Global; Yet JP inflation remains elevated; JIC ¥1trn bid for JSR(4183); Oriental Land hikes px-es
NUGGET. Cosmo Energy(5021) - set back for Japan corporate governance. The Fourth Estate - Your turn.


Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Activist investor influence in distributing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> is coming up cheap versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>. Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-property-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10566:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Property (ABP AU)</a> confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. </li>
</ul>


Activist investor influence in distributing Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s ¥1,980bn Oriental Land (4661 JP) stake to existing shareholders could unleash over 150% potential upside

Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) is coming up cheap versus Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB). Yet the longer-term view suggests otherwise. 

Abacus Property (ABP AU) confirmed the spin-off of an ASX-listed self-storage REIT with A$3bn in total assets. There's a trade here. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Oriental Land trades at 46x FY+2 EV/OP due to optimistic views on Fantasy Springs. However, we find consensus expectations for Fantasy Springs...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Keisei Electric: Valuation Distortion Set to Unravel with Fantasy Springs' Opening in Spring 2024

Keisei Electric's valuation has shown a notable deviation from Oriental Land's price performance, particularly since the announcement of the...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan|Correction Mode as Recession Fears Reassert; NUGGET: Cosmo Energy (5021) - SHAME ON YOU

Stocks fall on recession fears/higher rates. NKY Futs -0.6% disc to Cash; USDJPY 143.7 JP inflation remains elevated - BOJ pickle ? JIC ¥1trn bid...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kesei/Oriental Land, Intouch, Abacus Property, Great Eagle, JS Global

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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