Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.</li>
<li>But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.</li>
<li>And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.</li>
</ul>


Every year it's the same trade. But it isn't really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis - notably allocation.
But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.


The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY </li>
<li>NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Strong Beta Close in US Markets, with SPX +1.6%; US 10YR Yield retreated to under 4%; Tech  w/SOX +1.5%, led by BroadCom. +5.7%;  Ford +4% on strong EV demand
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.9% vs Cash; USDJPY strenthens 135.8;  Expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes; Renesas, OAL, JAL added to NKY 
NUGGET: Advantest looks best positioned to benefit from the emerging boom in Generative AI. 


Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Big picture: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> selling 29% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener">Downer EDI (DOW AU)</a>'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. </li>
<li>Hong Kong broadband play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. </li>
</ul>


Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 

Downer EDI (DOW AU)'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-march-2023-review-olc-jal-renesas-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97041" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.</a> </li>
<li>That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).</li>
<li>Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> IN, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a> OUT.</li>
<li>The Nikkei implemented the "Tricky Twist" discussed. This lowers the total amount to buy on Oriental Land vs what many would have expected.</li>
<li>That's "disappointing" BUT... the behavioural aspects here are really interesting, and the timetable for the event is worth thinking about. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Oriental Land (4661 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Japan Airlines (9201 JP) IN, and Toyobo (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP), Toho Zinc (5707 JP) OUT.
The Nikkei implemented the "Tricky Twist" discussed. This lowers the total amount to buy on Oriental Land vs what many would have expected.
That's "disappointing" BUT... the behavioural aspects here are really interesting, and the timetable for the event is worth thinking about. 


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

Japan

McDonald's Holdings Company (Japan), Ltd. operates a hamburger fast food restaurant chain throughout Japan.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores.

ZENSHO Holdings CO., LTD. operates a fast food chain specialized in GYUDON which serves bowls of rice topped with seasoned beef based in Kanto.      The Company operates also diversifying into other types of food chains such as "Coco's" and "Big Boy" in Japan.

Skylark Co. Ltd. mainly operates a family restaurant chain across Japan.  The Company offers Japanese-style, Western-style, and Asia-style foods for a wide variety of targeted customer segments.  Skylark also sells food and provides delivery servies.

RESORTTRUST, INC. plans, develops, markets, and operates timeshare resort hotels under the "XIV" and "SUN MEMBERS" brand name.  The Company's resort facilities are located in the suburb of major Japanese cities.  Resorttrust operates golf courses.

ROUND ONE Corporation operates bowling alleys and video game arcades.  The Company operates primarily in the Osaka area.

TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation operates a variety of restaurants such as skewered grill chicken, Japanese noodle, ramen noodle, Japanese-style pancake, and pasta restaurants.  The Company operates its business at food courts in shopping centers, stations, highway rest areas, and suburbs.

create restaurants holdings inc. operates direct-run Western, Chinese, and Japanese restaurants.  The Company also operates fast food restaurants.

create restaurants holdings inc. (3387 JP)

SAIZERIYA CO., LTD. operates an Italian restaurant chain based in the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company's menu includes pizza, pasta, seafood, and meat entrees.

KYORITSU MAINTENANCE CO., LTD operates student dormitories and dormitories for young businessmen throughout Japan.  The Company builds condominiums and dormitories.

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Indian Hotels Company Limited operates The Taj Group of hotels.  The Company owns or maintains long term leases/licenses for hotels in India, in addition to International hotels.  The Group's hotels are divided into three groups: Luxury, Business, and, Leisure.

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

The BIG March 2023 "Wednesday Thursday Trade"

This year, there is a US$12bn buy to do on 29 March at the close. Historically, performance is pretty good both on a 2-day period, then slumps....

Travis Lundy

Good Morning Japan | Equities - All Good (Again); Strong Tech Bid; EV, AI Drivers; NUGGET: Advantest

Strong close to US on Friday lead by Tech; In Japan. expect follow on Beta/Semi bid on Broadcom sentiment lift; Govt to restrain EPCO px Hikes;...

Mark Chadwick

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

The March 225 Rebalance is out so the Sep 2023 Review is fair game. I see three ADDs (Lasertec, Toshiba, and Nitori) and three DELETEs (Mitsui E&S,...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

The Nikkei 225 March 2023 review is as expected. OLC (4661), JAL (9201), and Renesas (6723) IN, three small names OUT. $1.7bn to buy. The important...

Travis Lundy

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