Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: A Potential Beat Next Quarter, but Unrealistic Consensus for Long-Term

Oriental Land: Google Searches For Tokyo Disneyland Dips Double Digits in July & August 2023

Oriental Land: Google Search Signals Potential Miss; Guidance Could Challenge Consensus Optimism

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs Is No Longer on Management’s Interest

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown

Oriental Land: Modest Price Reaction to Revised Guidance Indicates a Breakdown Is Imminent

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>’s revenue in 4QFY23 could miss consensus by around 12%, but its profitability could exceed consensus expectations by around 20%.</li>
<li>The shares did not react to beating consensus and revising up its guidance in the last quarter. This suggests limited upside risk for the company's shares following 4QFY23 earnings.</li>
<li>Despite consensus medium-term OP estimates, Oriental Land appears to be significantly overpriced, with shares trading at a consensus FY27 EV/OP multiple of 33.4x.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP)’s revenue in 4QFY23 could miss consensus by around 12%, but its profitability could exceed consensus expectations by around 20%.
The shares did not react to beating consensus and revising up its guidance in the last quarter. This suggests limited upside risk for the company's shares following 4QFY23 earnings.
Despite consensus medium-term OP estimates, Oriental Land appears to be significantly overpriced, with shares trading at a consensus FY27 EV/OP multiple of 33.4x.


Oriental Land: The 33.5x FY27 Consensus OP Bubble