Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs Is No Longer on Management’s Interest

Oriental Land (4661) As Nikkei 225 Candidate - What Is Float? What Is "The Tricky Twist"?

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Tangled in a Fantasy

Oriental Land: Modest Price Reaction to Revised Guidance Indicates a Breakdown Is Imminent

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As earnings recovered following the COVID drop, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>’s FY+2 EV/OP returned to around 40-60x range, which in our opinion is too expensive, especially in current market conditions.</li>
<li>The positivity surrounding the opening of Fantasy Springs got investors to pay huge multiples but Fantasy Springs is no longer looking enticing to investors.</li>
<li>With a miss and a downgrade to FY23 guidance on the horizon, we are expecting OLC’s share-price to break the long-term trend to the downside in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


As earnings recovered following the COVID drop, Oriental Land (4661 JP)’s FY+2 EV/OP returned to around 40-60x range, which in our opinion is too expensive, especially in current market conditions.
The positivity surrounding the opening of Fantasy Springs got investors to pay huge multiples but Fantasy Springs is no longer looking enticing to investors.
With a miss and a downgrade to FY23 guidance on the horizon, we are expecting OLC’s share-price to break the long-term trend to the downside in the next few months.


Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown