Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Oriental Land: Modest Price Reaction to Revised Guidance Indicates a Breakdown Is Imminent

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

Oriental Land: Price Reaction Unwarranted and There’s Significant Downside Risk in a Bear Market

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>It seems like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> has yet again failed to land the number of visitors that consensus expected it to attract during the second quarter of FY23.</li>
<li>Even though we don’t see much downside risk to the 2QFY23 consensus OP due to price hikes, we believe that there is plenty of downside to its medium-term estimates.</li>
<li>There is also room for valuation multiple contraction with Oriental Land currently trading at an inflated 28.2x consensus FY27 OP multiple.</li>
</ul>


It seems like Oriental Land (4661 JP) has yet again failed to land the number of visitors that consensus expected it to attract during the second quarter of FY23.
Even though we don’t see much downside risk to the 2QFY23 consensus OP due to price hikes, we believe that there is plenty of downside to its medium-term estimates.
There is also room for valuation multiple contraction with Oriental Land currently trading at an inflated 28.2x consensus FY27 OP multiple.


Oriental Land: Consensus Is Tangled in a Fantasy