Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

An equity research analyst with over 7 years of experience in multiple sectors. Previously worked for one of the world's largest asset managers with about USD2.5trn in AUM, covering small and micro-cap companies in the consumer sphere across Europe and developed Asia. Also experienced in covering multiple industries including banking, insurance and asset management, retail, tech, telco and REIT.

Equity Analyst

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review Quiddity Leaderboard (Nov 2022)

Oriental Land: Fantasy Springs, No Longer Enticing Investors, It’s Likely The Start Of The Breakdown

Nikkei 225 March Review - Quiddity Leaderboard (Jan 2023)

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Not in Touch with Reality

Oriental Land: Consensus Is Tangled in a Fantasy

Oriental Land’s New Medium-Term Plan: A Reality Check for Consensus

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> raised its FY23 revenue and OP guidance by 8.4% and 59.4% respectively last week sighting a recovery in demand for leisure during the second-half of the year.</li>
<li>The modest price reaction to upgraded guidance could be an indication that a breakdown is imminent.</li>
<li>Cost overruns of ¥70bn and a delay to the scheduled opening of Fantasy Springs from FY23 to FY24, could force investors to second guess consensus medium-term expectations.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661 JP) raised its FY23 revenue and OP guidance by 8.4% and 59.4% respectively last week sighting a recovery in demand for leisure during the second-half of the year.
The modest price reaction to upgraded guidance could be an indication that a breakdown is imminent.
Cost overruns of ¥70bn and a delay to the scheduled opening of Fantasy Springs from FY23 to FY24, could force investors to second guess consensus medium-term expectations.


Oriental Land: Modest Price Reaction to Revised Guidance Indicates a Breakdown Is Imminent