Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> places out 1% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-world-development" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7037:1" rel="noopener">New World Development (17 HK)</a> popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.</li>
<li>The spreads for  both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina Ltd (AWC AU) </a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a> are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) places out 1% of Oriental Land (4661 JP), but rejects lowering its stake to 15%.  That is the end of the near-term catalyst.

New World Development (17 HK) popped after property cooling measures were scrapped. Then gave those gains back. And then some, and is now trading at 0.11x P/B, its lowest-ever level.
The spreads for  both Alumina Ltd (AWC AU)  and Azure Minerals (AZS AU) are trading wide; both potentially FIRB-related.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric (9009 JP)</a> has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> shares. It has now announced another buyback.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric (9009 JP) has been an outperformer since activist fund Palliser Capital called on the company sell some Oriental Land (4661 JP) shares. It has now announced another buyback.
Preceding my comments on Keisei Electric are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

<ul>
<li>Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> - this is done.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Group (4755 JP)</a> announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?</li>
</ul>


Apart from being mildly EPS accretive, Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)'s buyback is a means to get crossholders out, therefore, it may not have much direct market impact. 

Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) firms a decade-high-plus Offer price for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) - this is done.

Rakuten Group (4755 JP) announced it would propose an amendment to its Articles at the AGM (28 March) to issue "Bond-Type Class Shares." First reaction: You wot, mate?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20231017540912/en/1917461/1/20231017_-_Palliser_Capital_-_13D_Presentation_on_Keisei.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.</li>
<li>Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) has long been the target of activist-ish-y holders who seek to have the company monetise its 20+% stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP). 
Last autumn (17-Oct-2023), Keisei was the subject of a presentation by activist-ish-y fund Palliser Capital who called the stock 43% undervalued. They want Keisei to sell some OLC shares.
Palliser wanted Keisei to use resulting monies for growth capex+shareholder return, improve IR/governance, shrink board, adopt KPIs, etc. Thursday we got an announcement of a 2.9% stock buyback. 


Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.</li>
<li>Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.</li>
<li>Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.</li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) share price has increased but not run ahead of its fundamentals.
Weak Yen, COVID rebound, friendlier visa policy by the Japanese government, and the potential for more Chinese tourists visiting Japan are tailwinds for Keisei.
Valuation may look expensive, but with the high growth rate, investors should consider to use PEG rather than PER or PBR.


Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced the placement of 1% in Oriental Land (4661 JP) ... but categorically rejected lowering its stake to...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

Keisei announced a buyback Thursday. I expect it is to buy from cross-holders, who own about a third of the company. I doubt this is a response to...

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, New World Development, Alumina Ltd, Azure Minerals, TDCX

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Keisei Electric Appears Stretched Amid Latest Buyback

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) announced the placement of 1% in Oriental Land (4661 JP) ... but categorically rejected lowering its stake to...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CSR, Rakuten, HK Property, Aeon/TSURUHA/Welcia

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Keisei Electric Rail (9009) - A BUYBACK! But It's Likely To Be Crossholders Selling in ToSTNeT-3

Keisei announced a buyback Thursday. I expect it is to buy from cross-holders, who own about a third of the company. I doubt this is a response to...

Travis Lundy

Keisei Electric Rail (9009): Can Be Higher

​Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...

Henry Soediarko

Keisei Electric Railway Co's share price is rising in line with positive fundamentals, driven by a weak Yen, COVID rebound, and potential increase...