External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.</li><li>Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.</li><li>Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

<ul><li>Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.</li><li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).</li><li>Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.</li><li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.</li><li>This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The headline changes in USD positioning is the latest week’s Commitments of Traders Report are relatively limited.Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to USD8.48bn.This is still close to the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.</li><li>Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.</li><li>Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.</li></ul>

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

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Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of...

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Bullish Sentiment Consolidates

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs are little changed after the prior week’s significant advance, falling USD291mn in the week to...

Scotiabank

Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts

Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the...

Steno Research

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