bearish
Asset Allocation Watch: Best not hope for cuts
374 Views20 Sep 2023 08:10
SUMMARY
- Recent developments in components of the inflation basket leave us less convinced of the path ahead for the Fed but judging by funds futures, the market is now pricing in cuts already by April 2024.
- Energy (and oil in particular) could easily wrongfoot these expectations.
- Our estimate is for a deficit just above 2mn barrels through the fourth quarter, which is enough to bring oil prices another 30% higher based on historical data.
Begin exploring Smartkarma's AI-augmented investing intelligence platform with a complimentary Preview Pass to:
- Unlock research summaries
- Follow top, independent analysts
- Receive personalised alerts
- Access Analytics, Events and more
Join 55,000+ investors, including top global asset managers overseeing $13+ trillion.
Upgrade later to our paid plans for full-access.
or
Already have an account? Sign In Now
Discussions
(Paid Plans Only)
Top 5%
Steno Research
Macro and Geopolitical Research House
- Energy Watch: Time for Nat Gas to Outshine Oil?22 Sep 2023
- 5 Things We Watch – Fed, BoE, Energy, GDI/GDP & BoJ21 Sep 2023
- Fed Nugget: Why the Fed Dot Plot Will Remain Hawkish21 Sep 2023
- Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?06 Sep 2023
- Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden Melt-Down? 5 Charts on Cross-Asset Spill-Overs!14 Aug 2023
x