Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.</li><li>This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted indices is slowly normalizing, but the impact that NVIDIA (and some of the other big tech firms) has on both broad equity returns is notable with the 5 largest companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for roughly 30% of the index by now.This does not only have implications for the distribution of returns between bigger indices (Nasdaq vs Dow Jones for instance), but also on indices option volatility, with the VIX ex NVIDIA hitting lows of around 9 in May (2017/2018 lows).

Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.</li><li>It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.</li><li>We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).</li></ul>

Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro generalists such as myself and Thorsten Slok of Apollo suddenly spend countless hours watching Copper trends.It is probably a red flag in itself, but it just seems like these developments are so INCREDIBLY important for global macro- and geopolitics these months.We have been all over the Chinese copper story in recent months and also traded it with good luck, but we have admittedly been wrong in our call for a weaker CNY (so far).

Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.</li><li>Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectations</li><li>RBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcome</li><li>Kiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertain</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar trading sideways due to tariff premium and mature Fed easing expectationsRBNZ meeting expectations uncertain, market pricing in hike but unlikely outcomeKiwi may rally temporarily if RBNZ sounds hawkish, but long-term growth outlook remains uncertainThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul><li>The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in overall USD bearishness, in keeping with the broader USD rebound seen in early 2024 so far.</li><li>Non-commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD shorts (against the major currencies we monitor for this report) USD3.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking the overall net short back to USD5.7bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Institutional Accounts (real money traders) clipping aggregate USD longs USD4.5bn on the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reduced a small net long from the prior couple of weeks to effectively flat</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in overall USD bearishness, in keeping with the broader USD rebound seen in early 2024 so far.Non-commercial (speculative) traders pared aggregate USD shorts (against the major currencies we monitor for this report) USD3.6bn in the week through last Tuesday, taking the overall net short back to USD5.7bn.Additional data shows Institutional Accounts (real money traders) clipping aggregate USD longs USD4.5bn on the week while Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reduced a small net long from the prior couple of weeks to effectively flatContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves on EUR Long Liquidation

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

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Positioning Watch – Turmoil in Markets Is Returning

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch. The divergence between market-cap weighted and and non market-cap weighted...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #100 – China’s MAJOR power grab on Copper supply chains

Happy Sunday from sunny Greece and welcome to a very special jubilee edition of Steno Signals. Let me start by dwelling on the fact that Macro...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.

Scotiabank

Global FX: Give me a (range) break

The dollar is trading sideways amid tariff concerns and matured Fed easing expectations, while markets are primed for the RBNZ meeting next week,...

At Any Rate

CFTC Weekly Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves on EUR Long Liquidation

The latest snapshot of FX sentiment and positioning provided by the CFTC data for the week through January 23rd reflect a further reduction in...

Scotiabank

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