IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Comparing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial metrics from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)</a>. Tencent Video metrics disclosed in Tencent’s 1Q18 results on 16 May indicated that iQIYI is falling further behind because of :<ul>
<li>Tencent Video’s total revenue grew 75% YoY in 1Q18. In comparison, iQIYI’s total revenue grew 57% YoY.</li>
<li>All the main Chinese online video platforms are all moving gradually to a…</li>
</ul>

Comparing iQIYI Inc (IQ US) to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial metrics from Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK). Tencent Video metrics disclosed in Tencent’s 1Q18 results on 16 May indicated that iQIYI is falling further behind because of :
Tencent Video’s total revenue grew 75% YoY in 1Q18. In comparison, iQIYI’s total revenue grew 57% YoY.
All the main Chinese online video platforms are all moving gradually to a…


IQIYI: Falling Further Behind Tencent Video

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>Management conference call reveals that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> sees itself as "Netflix Plus".</li><li>Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could grow by 30% CAGR next few years.</li><li>The path to profitability lies in higher ARPU/pricing power (and a larger scale to a smaller extent), and our projection is that IQ would post a small profit only in 2021.</li><li>IQ trades at 3.8x 2018 P/S, a 16% discount to its closest global comp, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26772:1">Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)</a>.  </li></ul>

Management conference call reveals that iQIYI Inc (IQ US) sees itself as "Netflix Plus".Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could grow by 30% CAGR next few years.The path to profitability lies in higher ARPU/pricing power (and a larger scale to a smaller extent), and our projection is that IQ would post a small profit only in 2021.IQ trades at 3.8x 2018 P/S, a 16% discount to its closest global comp, Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US).  

IQIYI: Is There A (Clear) Path to Profitability?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector.  Charts highlighted:  AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH, UAA, FOSL, GOOS, GIII, TJX, BURL, AEO, ANF, BBY, M, URBN, RL, LUXTY, LE, NKE, WWW, DECK, SHOO, CROX, RCKY, WEYS, MAR, HLT, LQ, ILG, CHH, H, IHG, WYNN, LVS, MLCO, BYD, PNK, YUM, DPZ, TXRH, CAKE, NDLS, and DNKN.

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Asia Ex Japan; Technology and Consumption.

Rohinee Sharma

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

If you have been an investor in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/666" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1">Apple Inc (AAPL US)</a> this year – it has certainly been a bumpy ride – well, at least until May 1st, 2018 when it declared its numbers. But despite all the muted predictions including amongst other things (like the world domination aspirations from other smartphone manufacturers):<ul>
<li>pessimism around iPhone X sales</li>
<li>the narrative moving from a great product company to being a cash generating machine -its current cash reserve stands at $267.2bn, $160bn in net cash (which…</li>
</ul>

If you have been an investor in Apple Inc (AAPL US) this year – it has certainly been a bumpy ride – well, at least until May 1st, 2018 when it declared its numbers. But despite all the muted predictions including amongst other things (like the world domination aspirations from other smartphone manufacturers):
pessimism around iPhone X sales
the narrative moving from a great product company to being a cash generating machine -its current cash reserve stands at $267.2bn, $160bn in net cash (which…


Paradigm Shift: A Bigger Slice of Apple's Service Pie

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.</li>
<li>The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.</li>
<li>Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…</li>
</ul>


A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have been covered in recent notes.
The deep junk issue last week from WeWork with its ‘community adjusted EBITDA’ metric as well as the lending scandal in Australia engulfing AMP are classic late credit cycle warning signals.
Real housing prices in Scandinavia and Australia/Canada as well as HK are dangerously above long-term trend and vulnerable to a global…


Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

IQIYI: Falling Further Behind Tencent Video

Comparing iQIYI Inc (IQ US) to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial...

Arun George

IQIYI: Is There A (Clear) Path to Profitability?

Management conference call reveals that iQIYI Inc (IQ US) sees itself as "Netflix Plus". Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could...

Johannes Salim, CFA

U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector: Complete Technical Analysis

Complete top-down and bottom-up technical analysis of the U.S. Consumer Discretionary Sector. Charts highlighted: AMZN, NFLX, COLM, PVH,...

Vermilion Research

Paradigm Shift: A Bigger Slice of Apple's Service Pie

If you have been an investor in Apple Inc (AAPL US) this year – it has certainly been a bumpy ride – well, at least until May 1st, 2018 when it...

Rohinee Sharma

Beware Deep Junk and Liar Loans, as Netflix Reinvents Media Sector…

A broad USD rally is finally underway, and the risk of an offshore dollar shortage remains acute for EM - the asset allocation implications have...

Sean Maher

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)