Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks</li><li>We have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.</li><li>Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks business</li><li>Sell Disney shares</li><li>Underweight the global TV broadcasting sector</li></ul>

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networksWe have increased the weighting of this theme as an earnings driver for the TV broadcasting sector from 5% four years ago to 45% today.Expect profit warnings from Disney related to its TV networks businessSell Disney sharesUnderweight the global TV broadcasting sector

China, Emerging Markets

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Equity Bottom-Up

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market cap is $86bn, roughly 1/8th of Google's, and 1/5th of Alibaba or Tencent. Baidu is losing market share, if we define it as advertising revenue. Most of Alibaba's revenue comes from advertising, so this makes them direct competitors - and Alibaba's winning.Alibaba is a monster. It's operating difficulties abroad should be balanced against dominance at home.

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market cap is $86bn, roughly 1/8th of Google's, and 1/5th of Alibaba or Tencent. Baidu is losing market share, if we define it as advertising revenue. Most of Alibaba's revenue comes from advertising, so this makes them direct competitors - and Alibaba's winning.Alibaba is a monster. It's operating difficulties abroad should be balanced against dominance at home.

Sizing up Baidu (And Alibaba), Part 1 of 2

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

At first glance, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22213:1">WPP's (WPP LN)</a> second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative which sees UK corporate earnings, having benefited initially from sterling’s weakness, now struggle, as consumption and capex decisions are delayed, pending clarity on the Brexit settlement. However, since WPP is a global company and generates just 13% of sales in the UK, this isn’t a very good explanation for its problems.First up, WPP’s problems…

At first glance, WPP's (WPP LN) second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative which sees UK corporate earnings, having benefited initially from sterling’s weakness, now struggle, as consumption and capex decisions are delayed, pending clarity on the Brexit settlement. However, since WPP is a global company and generates just 13% of sales in the UK, this isn’t a very good explanation for its problems.First up, WPP’s problems…

Negative Readthrough from WPP's Outlook Warning for Japanese Advertisers, Global Consumer Tech

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a…

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a…

Baidu's good Q2 results signal a climb towards a 45%+ upside, but risks remain<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/179" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1">Baidu</a> had a good Q2 - it <a href="http://ir.baidu.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=188488&amp;p=irol-newsArticle&amp;ID=2289721" target="_blank">beat</a> earnings expectations by 56%, and grew revenue, operating income and net income by 14%, 47% and 83%. Consequently, the stock traded up 9.45%, on the last Friday of July this year, comfortably beating whatever benchmarks set before it.The main reason it did well this quarter is because it managed to cut costs, and the market missed this - revenues were <a href="https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=BIDU:NSQ" target="_blank">broadly in line</a> with analyst…

Baidu's good Q2 results signal a climb towards a 45%+ upside, but risks remainBaidu had a good Q2 - it beat earnings expectations by 56%, and grew revenue, operating income and net income by 14%, 47% and 83%. Consequently, the stock traded up 9.45%, on the last Friday of July this year, comfortably beating whatever benchmarks set before it.The main reason it did well this quarter is because it managed to cut costs, and the market missed this - revenues were broadly in line with analyst…

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Sell Disney; Underweight TV Broadcasters

Internet TV is the most important theme driving Walt Disney’s share price and those of other TV networks We have increased the weighting of this...

CM Research

Sizing up Baidu (And Alibaba), Part 1 of 2

In this Part 1 of a two-part series, I size up Baidu by market cap and market share, and get dragged into sizing up Alibaba as well. Baidu's market...

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

Negative Readthrough from WPP's Outlook Warning for Japanese Advertisers, Global Consumer Tech

At first glance, WPP's (WPP LN) second sales warning of the year is merely a storyline in keeping with the growing “post-Brexit hangover” narrative...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Thinking Through Baidu's Q2

Baidu's good Q2 results signal a climb towards a 45%+ upside, but risks remainBaidu had a good Q2 - it beat earnings expectations by 56%, and grew...

Ryan Soh 苏祥发

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