Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over DIS.</li><li>But the stage is set for DIS to start accelerating faster than NFLX.</li><li>This is how I would describe the US Media sector today, and Disney’s Q1 results released yesterday only serves to bolster that narrative.</li></ul>

Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead over DIS.But the stage is set for DIS to start accelerating faster than NFLX.This is how I would describe the US Media sector today, and Disney’s Q1 results released yesterday only serves to bolster that narrative.

Disney Q1 Earnings: Finally Ready to Take Share from Netflix

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Market Thinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In our October monthly we noted that we didn’t trust the spike in the Chinese stock markets and that, while we believed that there may now be a long term base forming, we saw this as a potential dip to be bought rather than a rally to be chased.</li><li>So with a near perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally, should we be buying?</li><li>Well - and with the all important caveat that this is not to be considered investment advice, please speak to a financial advisor - the answer is, to quote Oasis, Definitely Maybe.</li></ul>

In our October monthly we noted that we didn’t trust the spike in the Chinese stock markets and that, while we believed that there may now be a long term base forming, we saw this as a potential dip to be bought rather than a rally to be chased.So with a near perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally, should we be buying?Well - and with the all important caveat that this is not to be considered investment advice, please speak to a financial advisor - the answer is, to quote Oasis, Definitely Maybe.

Building a Capital Market with Chinese Characteristics

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.</li><li>The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.</li><li>Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243</li></ul>

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids…</li><li>Every generation has its share of fad products, fashion statements, and hairstyles.</li><li>But what separates a fad from a sustainable trend? Understanding the difference between the two can be challenging.</li></ul>

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids…Every generation has its share of fad products, fashion statements, and hairstyles.But what separates a fad from a sustainable trend? Understanding the difference between the two can be challenging.

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

<ul>
<li>The main focus will remain on Direct-to-Consumer profitability, but areas such as the recently announced restructuring plan and pricing power in parks &amp; experiences also deserve attention.</li>
<li>The main focus is on the company's Direct- to- consumer profitability.</li>
<li>It has been three months since my latest update on The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) when I highlighted a number of reasons why the company is finally in a good position to deliver on its bottom line figures.</li>
</ul>


The main focus will remain on Direct-to-Consumer profitability, but areas such as the recently announced restructuring plan and pricing power in parks &amp; experiences also deserve attention.
The main focus is on the company's Direct- to- consumer profitability.
It has been three months since my latest update on The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) when I highlighted a number of reasons why the company is finally in a good position to deliver on its bottom line figures.


Disney's Q3 2023 Earnings: A Pivotal Quarter To Appease Investors And Analysts

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Building a Capital Market with Chinese Characteristics

This suggests to us that the views on China will remain ‘uncertain’ in the near term - with traders dominating and the supposed long term narrative...

Mark Tinker

Spotify 4Q'23 Update

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.

MBI Deep Dives

Fads and Second Acts

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids… Every generation has its share...

Investment Talk

Disney's Q3 2023 Earnings: A Pivotal Quarter To Appease Investors And Analysts

The main focus will remain on Direct-to-Consumer profitability, but areas such as the recently announced restructuring plan and pricing power in...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Disney Q1 Earnings: Finally Ready to Take Share from Netflix

Imagine a racetrack with 10 horses. The first two horses (NFLX and DIS) are peeling away from everyone else; with NFLX still having a sizeable lead...

Value Investing

Building a Capital Market with Chinese Characteristics

This suggests to us that the views on China will remain ‘uncertain’ in the near term - with traders dominating and the supposed long term narrative...

Mark Tinker

Spotify 4Q'23 Update

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.

MBI Deep Dives

Fads and Second Acts

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids… Every generation has its share...

Investment Talk

Disney's Q3 2023 Earnings: A Pivotal Quarter To Appease Investors And Analysts

The main focus will remain on Direct-to-Consumer profitability, but areas such as the recently announced restructuring plan and pricing power in...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA