Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Farha Sabri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>The increasing popularity of video streaming services and diminishing demand for cable TV is causing a major shakeup in the US media industry. Video streaming services have become all the rage over the last decade with streaming giant  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20451" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20451:1">Netflix Inc (NFLX US)</a> seeing the number of worldwide subscribers increasing 5x to 125 million subscribers from 2011 to 1Q2018.</li>
<li>This has led to a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions amongst leading media companies, to curb the setbacks caused by streaming giants and…</li>
</ul>


The increasing popularity of video streaming services and diminishing demand for cable TV is causing a major shakeup in the US media industry. Video streaming services have become all the rage over the last decade with streaming giant  Netflix Inc (NFLX US) seeing the number of worldwide subscribers increasing 5x to 125 million subscribers from 2011 to 1Q2018.
This has led to a frenzy of mergers and acquisitions amongst leading media companies, to curb the setbacks caused by streaming giants and…


Vertical Mergers Greenlit for US Media Companies; More Bids for Fox Acquisition?

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.</li>
<li>The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.</li>
<li>A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…</li>
</ul>


The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading ‘over a cliff’ in 2020.
The ECB’s new forecasts are tilting toward stagflation and a single rate hike in H2 next year - nonetheless, the end of asset purchases added to Fed QT further tightens global liquidity.
A rising political risk premium and scramble for offshore USD funding is hitting LatAm hardest so far, with local equities lagging Asia by 14ppts…


Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li><strong>U.S. equity markets remain resilient. </strong>Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).</li></ul>

U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes are also hitting all-time highs. Moreover, the S&amp;P 500 has moved to a new high relative to May prices, providing new evidence that the market is likely to continue its trend higher. Given these developments, our outlook continues to move toward the bullish camp. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable stocks within Energy (Refiners) and Health Care (Cardiovascular Products, and Surgical Devices &amp; Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Refiners & Med Device Makers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p>Comparing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial metrics from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1">Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK)</a>. Tencent Video metrics disclosed in Tencent’s 1Q18 results on 16 May indicated that iQIYI is falling further behind because of :</p><ul>
<li>Tencent Video’s total revenue grew 75% YoY in 1Q18. In comparison, iQIYI’s total revenue grew 57% YoY.</li>
<li>All the main Chinese online video platforms are all moving gradually to a…</li>
</ul>

Comparing iQIYI Inc (IQ US) to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial metrics from Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK). Tencent Video metrics disclosed in Tencent’s 1Q18 results on 16 May indicated that iQIYI is falling further behind because of :
Tencent Video’s total revenue grew 75% YoY in 1Q18. In comparison, iQIYI’s total revenue grew 57% YoY.
All the main Chinese online video platforms are all moving gradually to a…


IQIYI: Falling Further Behind Tencent Video

ASEAN (Indo) & China-focused. Ex-Deputy HoR UBS.

Johannes Salim, CFA

<ul><li>Management conference call reveals that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> sees itself as "Netflix Plus".</li><li>Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could grow by 30% CAGR next few years.</li><li>The path to profitability lies in higher ARPU/pricing power (and a larger scale to a smaller extent), and our projection is that IQ would post a small profit only in 2021.</li><li>IQ trades at 3.8x 2018 P/S, a 16% discount to its closest global comp, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26772" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26772:1">Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US)</a>.  </li></ul>

Management conference call reveals that iQIYI Inc (IQ US) sees itself as "Netflix Plus".Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could grow by 30% CAGR next few years.The path to profitability lies in higher ARPU/pricing power (and a larger scale to a smaller extent), and our projection is that IQ would post a small profit only in 2021.IQ trades at 3.8x 2018 P/S, a 16% discount to its closest global comp, Spotify Technology SA (SPOT US).  

IQIYI: Is There A (Clear) Path to Profitability?

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Vertical Mergers Greenlit for US Media Companies; More Bids for Fox Acquisition?

The increasing popularity of video streaming services and diminishing demand for cable TV is causing a major shakeup in the US media industry....

Farha Sabri

Fed Ignores EM Pain, as Dollar Rally Accelerates…

The Fed has reiterated its tightening path, despite pleas from EM central bankers and warnings from Ben Bernanke that the US economy is heading...

Sean Maher

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Refiners & Med Device Makers

U.S. equity markets remain resilient. Led by strength in technology and biotech, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high yesterday. Small-cap indexes...

Vermilion Research

IQIYI: Falling Further Behind Tencent Video

Comparing iQIYI Inc (IQ US) to its key competitor, Tencent Video, is increasingly possible due to regular quarterly disclosure of certain financial...

Arun George

IQIYI: Is There A (Clear) Path to Profitability?

Management conference call reveals that iQIYI Inc (IQ US) sees itself as "Netflix Plus". Our penetration rate analysis suggests that subs could...

Johannes Salim, CFA

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