Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped</li>
<li>Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers
Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped
Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Nov 24th which has an aggregated holding worth USD675.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top changes by value for 1 week, one 4 weeks, 1 year and top stocks held by foreign instutions by dollar value.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,213mln and highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins driven primarily by FX changes.</li>
<li>Revenue was slightly below Taiwan Dollar (TWD) expectations, but margins were ahead of consensus. The big driver of this margin beat was FX, as the dollar weakened against the TWD.</li>
<li>The margin beat happened despite the 3nm ramp, a meaningful headwind. As N3 becomes a larger node, the headwind should increase, especially next quarter.</li>
</ul>


TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins driven primarily by FX changes.
Revenue was slightly below Taiwan Dollar (TWD) expectations, but margins were ahead of consensus. The big driver of this margin beat was FX, as the dollar weakened against the TWD.
The margin beat happened despite the 3nm ramp, a meaningful headwind. As N3 becomes a larger node, the headwind should increase, especially next quarter.


Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.</li>
<li>The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.</li>
<li>Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology's results missed expectations last week, showing a sharp decline in margin, underperforming the recent results performance of Micron &amp; SK Hynix.
The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron &amp; SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and lacking High Bandwith Memory DRAM.
Nevertheless the company is cautiously reporting an improving environment and improved customer inventory levels, hence we believe the result still implies an improving memory industry pricing environment into year end.


Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Nanya and Yageo have been top gainers recently with Yageo achieving new 52-week highs; We rate the stocks as Outperform and Structural Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Nov 24th): TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlight foreign holding changes in TSMC, Mediatek, Wistron.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Weekly Earnings (ASML, LRCX, TSMC, Nanya)

TSMC results came in much better than feared. Revenue was slightly weaker than expected and below consensus. This quarter's big story was margins...

Fabricated Knowledge

Nanya Tech: Sharply Worse Margin Performance Than Micron & SK Hynix, But Supports Memory Recovery

The company was more conservative on a pricing recovery outlook for its memory ASPs than Micron and SK, due to lacking DDR5 DRAM products and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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