Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November</li>
<li>Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand</li>
<li>Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade</li>
</ul>


Memory Market Diverges: AI Demand Continues to Surges While Legacy Segments Struggle in November
Diverging Demand Trends Highlight Market Decoupling -- AI Driving HBM, Server DRAM, QLC NAND Demand
Outlook for the Memory Market -- Decoupling Trade: Long SK Hynix vs. Short Nanya Tech Trade


Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.</li><li>Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.</li><li>Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.</li></ul>

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia to use GB200 AI server chips, staying ahead in cloud innovation.Hong Kong's October tech fairs will showcase electronics and lighting innovations from 6,000+ global exhibitors.Middle East pager explosions heighten concerns about Western V2X security, while China's advances in silicon photonics may boost AI development.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.</li>
<li>Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.</li>
<li>While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. </li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results missed expecations by a wide margin, coming in with a net loss instead of the consensus expectation for a profit.
Nanya highlighed weakness in non-AI end applications for memory and cut its 2024E Capex guidance by nearly 25%, signaling caution towards the current market cycle.
While the company's new DDR5 capacity ramp-up should support stronger margins into 2025E, Nanya has yet to show a signifcant margin upturn in the cycle. 


Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 September.</li>
<li>Shorts have been covering positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> while there has been a surge in new short positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>. </li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> has flattened out as momentum has stalled while there has been a surge in cumulative excess volume for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) will replace Nanya Technology (2408 TT) in the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 September.
Shorts have been covering positions in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) while there has been a surge in new short positions in Nanya Technology (2408 TT). 
Cumulative excess volume in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) has flattened out as momentum has stalled while there has been a surge in cumulative excess volume for Nanya Technology (2408 TT).


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Rallying PharmaEssentia To Replace Sliding Nanya Tech

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> in the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airtac-international-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20538:1" rel="noopener">Airtac International (1590 TT)</a> has possibly just avoided deletion.</li>
<li>Short interest has been dropping in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pharmaessentia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16461:1" rel="noopener">Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT)</a> as the stock has rallied, while cumulative excess volume has continued to increase steadily.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanya-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3269:1" rel="noopener">Nanya Technology (2408 TT)</a> as the stock price dropped. There has been no increase in volume on the recent upmove indicating a possibility of further downside.</li>
</ul>



Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) could replace Nanya Technology (2408 TT) in the Taiwan Top 50 ETF in September. Airtac International (1590 TT) has possibly just avoided deletion.
Short interest has been dropping in Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) as the stock has rallied, while cumulative excess volume has continued to increase steadily.
Shorts have increased in Nanya Technology (2408 TT) as the stock price dropped. There has been no increase in volume on the recent upmove indicating a possibility of further downside.


Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Rallying PharmaEssentia To Replace Sliding Nanya Tech

Pharmaessentia will replace Nanya Tech in the Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 Sep. Passives need to trade around 1x ADV in both stocks....

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

PharmaEssentia could replace Nanya Tech in the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Shorts have been covering Pharmaessentia and building positions in Nanya Tech....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Memory Monitor: Decoupling Trade Long SK Hynix Vs. Short Nanya Tech

​AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Oct-2024): Azure leads in Nvidia's GB200 AI chips, fueling cloud innovation.

Microsoft Azure partners with Nvidia for cloud innovation using GB200 AI server chips, Hong Kong tech fairs to feature 6,000+ exhibitors, Middle...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Memory Monitor: Nanya Results Miss; Highlights Weakness in Non-AI Demand

​Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance: Rallying PharmaEssentia To Replace Sliding Nanya Tech

Pharmaessentia will replace Nanya Tech in the Top 50 ETF at the close of trading on 20 Sep. Passives need to trade around 1x ADV in both stocks....

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Expected in Sep

PharmaEssentia could replace Nanya Tech in the Taiwan Top50 ETF. Shorts have been covering Pharmaessentia and building positions in Nanya Tech....

Brian Freitas

AI demand is driving growth in memory market, while legacy segments struggle, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on decoupling...

Nanya Tech's 3Q24 results disappoint with net loss, cuts Capex guidance by 25% due to weak non-AI memory demand, but DDR5 capacity ramp-up may...