Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya reported Q326 revenues of NT$133,649 million, up 61.9% QoQ and up 611.7% YoY.</li>
<li>Gross profit was NT$114,482 million, with a gross margin of 85.7%, up 6.2 percentage points QoQ and up 67.2 percentage points YoY.</li>
<li>ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.</li>
</ul>


Nanya reported Q326 revenues of NT$133,649 million, up 61.9% QoQ and up 611.7% YoY.
Gross profit was NT$114,482 million, with a gross margin of 85.7%, up 6.2 percentage points QoQ and up 67.2 percentage points YoY.
ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.


Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

<ul>
<li>Nanya delivered +12.2% since initiation — the only positive return in coverage — but at 12.7× FY2027E the stock has now priced in the DDR4 scarcity thesis in full.</li>
<li>DDR4 4Gb contract prices tripled to US$5.40/Gb; the Big Three HBM wafer redirect structurally embeds DRAM scarcity through Q4 2027; the thesis is correct, the price has caught up.</li>
<li>NEUTRAL (downgraded from BULLISH); TP NT$490 (12× FY2027E EPS NT$40.60); at 12.7× spot — above our TP — Nanya offers no margin of safety; sideline, re-enter below NT$450.</li>
</ul>


Nanya delivered +12.2% since initiation — the only positive return in coverage — but at 12.7× FY2027E the stock has now priced in the DDR4 scarcity thesis in full.
DDR4 4Gb contract prices tripled to US$5.40/Gb; the Big Three HBM wafer redirect structurally embeds DRAM scarcity through Q4 2027; the thesis is correct, the price has caught up.
NEUTRAL (downgraded from BULLISH); TP NT$490 (12× FY2027E EPS NT$40.60); at 12.7× spot — above our TP — Nanya offers no margin of safety; sideline, re-enter below NT$450.


Nanya Technology (2408 TW): Investment Thesis Played Out — Sideline for Better Entry

CEO / Founder, Crea8

Kim-Hwa Lim

CEO / Founder

Make an Impact

Crea8

Crea8 blends AI-driven precision, big data scalability, and rigorous quantitative frameworks with seasoned human insight. By extracting actionable intelligence from vast global datasets, we eliminate emotional bias and deliver optimal risk-adjusted returns. Our hybrid approach uncovers hidden market efficiencies and ensures your capital is dynamically positioned across markets.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The strategy seeks to invest in companies with superior sustainability features/initiatives.</li><li>These companies may be: 1) screened by avoiding issuers with negative ESG; 2) uplifted due to their commitment to improve ESG; 3) included as their business models may not only benefit from but also may drive long-term sustainability outcomes; and 4) committed to generating positive, measurable and additional sustainability outcomes.</li><li>By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.</li></ul>

The strategy seeks to invest in companies with superior sustainability features/initiatives.These companies may be: 1) screened by avoiding issuers with negative ESG; 2) uplifted due to their commitment to improve ESG; 3) included as their business models may not only benefit from but also may drive long-term sustainability outcomes; and 4) committed to generating positive, measurable and additional sustainability outcomes.By adopting a portfolio of stocks instead of individual stocks, the strategy is diversified across countries and industries; and optimised with respect to their expected risks and returns.

Global Sustainability Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Roundhill Memory ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>2-Month base breakout on ACWI-US, MSCI EM(EEM-US) reversing its 1+month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE's(EFA-US) 5.5+ month base breakout reinforces our bullish outlook; these display bull flag patterns and remain healthy.</li>
<li>All signs are pointing to a resumption of prior uptrends, and we continue to recommend adding exposure to global Technology stocks (today buy list includes Samsung and SK Hynix).</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
2-Month base breakout on ACWI-US, MSCI EM(EEM-US) reversing its 1+month downtrend, and MSCI EAFE's(EFA-US) 5.5+ month base breakout reinforces our bullish outlook; these display bull flag patterns and remain healthy.
All signs are pointing to a resumption of prior uptrends, and we continue to recommend adding exposure to global Technology stocks (today buy list includes Samsung and SK Hynix).


Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Nanya's second quarter set a record on price, not volume: revenue rose 68% QoQ as ASP climbed more than 60% and bit shipments stayed flat, at a 79.5% gross margin.</li>
<li>Management guided the third quarter to improve further and called results sustainable for several quarters, so the sequential second-half decline consensus had modelled did not survive the print.</li>
<li>Nanya's capacity response is now funded: full-year capex is guided to about NT$52bn, four times last year, and a NT$78.7bn placement lifted net cash to NT$198bn.</li>
</ul>


Nanya's second quarter set a record on price, not volume: revenue rose 68% QoQ as ASP climbed more than 60% and bit shipments stayed flat, at a 79.5% gross margin.
Management guided the third quarter to improve further and called results sustainable for several quarters, so the sequential second-half decline consensus had modelled did not survive the print.
Nanya's capacity response is now funded: full-year capex is guided to about NT$52bn, four times last year, and a NT$78.7bn placement lifted net cash to NT$198bn.


Nanya Tech Signals Memory Shortage Extends Through the Second Half

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.

William Keating

Nanya Technology (2408 TW): Investment Thesis Played Out — Sideline for Better Entry

Nanya's DDR4 scarcity thesis has played out, delivering 12.2% since initiation. At 12.7× FY2027E, the stock is above fair value. Wait for NT$450.

Mo Aziz

Global Sustainability Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in companies with superior sustainability features/initiatives. These companies may be: 1) screened by avoiding...

Crea8

Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Thursday pre-market report: Buying Samsung and SK Hynix $SKHY; MSCI EM $EEM and Korea $EWY $DRAM Remain Buys. Actionable Themes: Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Nanya Tech Signals Memory Shortage Extends Through the Second Half

Nanya's record-breaking second quarter saw revenue soar 68% due to higher prices, not volume, with management predicting sustained growth and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nanya Q326 Earnings Review. Has The Cycle Peaked?

ASPs rose more than 60% QoQ and more than 500% YoY, almost entirely reflecting the renewal of long-term agreements (LTAs) at materially higher prices.

William Keating

Nanya Technology (2408 TW): Investment Thesis Played Out — Sideline for Better Entry

Nanya's DDR4 scarcity thesis has played out, delivering 12.2% since initiation. At 12.7× FY2027E, the stock is above fair value. Wait for NT$450.

Mo Aziz

Global Sustainability Portfolio (14-Sep-2026)

The strategy seeks to invest in companies with superior sustainability features/initiatives. These companies may be: 1) screened by avoiding...

Crea8

Buying Samsung and SK Hynix; MSCI EM (EEM-US) And Korea (EWY-US) Remain Buys

Thursday pre-market report: Buying Samsung and SK Hynix $SKHY; MSCI EM $EEM and Korea $EWY $DRAM Remain Buys. Actionable Themes: Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Nanya Tech Signals Memory Shortage Extends Through the Second Half

​Nanya's record-breaking second quarter saw revenue soar 68% due to higher prices, not volume, with management predicting sustained growth and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya's record-breaking second quarter saw revenue soar 68% due to higher prices, not volume, with management predicting sustained growth and...