Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.</li>
<li>Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.</li>
<li>We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Tech reported a continued net loss in its latest 2Q24 results; the company's gross margin has rebounded into positive territory but only marginally so.
Server end demand strong, however PC and mobile remain flattish; the company expects some improvemnt in PC and mobile driven by AI trends but conservative on the impact for 2024E.
We believe the Street may need to reduce their 2024E estimates; margin rebound is too small and guidance remains very conservative. We see near-term downside risk for Nanya Tech shares.


Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

<ul>
<li>Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.</li>
<li>Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.</li>
<li>Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.</li>
</ul>


Latest Nanya Tech results showed weak margin rebound. Gross margin rebounded but remained below zero.
Nanya expects DRAM pricing improvement through 2024E; due to demand for AI related memory products reducing capacity for other DRAM products rather than improvement for Nanya's main Consumer segment.
Micron is reportedly increasing prices post Taiwan earthquake and this is positive, but we see Nanya's 2024E consensus margin expectations set at a high bar and the stock isn't cheap.


Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Nanya’s quarterly revenue was NT$ 9.5 billion, up 9.2% QoQ &amp; up 47.9% YoY</li>
<li>Nanya still had a net loss of NT$1.2 billion, its sixth loss making quarter in a row</li>
<li>Larger peers doubling down on HBM, structural reduction in memory wafer capacity &amp; shortages likely triggered by Taiwan earthquake are all mounting tailwinds for Nanya</li>
</ul>


Nanya’s quarterly revenue was NT$ 9.5 billion, up 9.2% QoQ &amp; up 47.9% YoY
Nanya still had a net loss of NT$1.2 billion, its sixth loss making quarter in a row
Larger peers doubling down on HBM, structural reduction in memory wafer capacity &amp; shortages likely triggered by Taiwan earthquake are all mounting tailwinds for Nanya


Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

<ul>
<li>DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.</li>
<li>While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.</li>
<li>Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.</li>
</ul>


DRAM producer Nanya Tech will report its 1Q24E results on April 10th.
While Micron has said it is evaluating the impact of the Taiwan earthquake on its operations and has halted price discussions with clients, Nanya could provide latest DRAM outlook color.
Short interest has spiked ahead of Nanya's results; We note that the company has a large revenue and margin rebound it needs to deliver on to meet 2024E consensus.


Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

<ul>
<li>Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.</li>
<li>Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.</li>
<li>Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.</li>
</ul>


Micron shares have soared after the company reported its latest results with forward margin guidance well above consensus expectations.
Micron appears to be successfully leapfrogging into ther HBM memory space, and says that its production for 2024E is sold out and for 2025E is already all 'allocated'.
Taiwan's Nanya Tech has lagged its peers by a wide margin; Nanya lacks HBM products however HBM market demand is driving supply tightness for all DRAM.


Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

Taiwan

eMemory Technology, Inc. develops and provides logic non-volatile memory (LogicNVM) technology. The company licenses its intellectual property to semiconductor foundries, integrated devices manufacturers (IDMs), and fabless design houses around the world.

Sino-American Silicon Products Inc. supplies silicon-based products, including silicon lapped wafer, silicon diffusion wafer, silicon ingot, silicon diffused diode chip, and automobile rectifier.  The Company sells its products worldwide.

King Yuan Electronics Co., Ltd. provides integrated circuit (IC) testing services to semiconductor manufacturers.  The Company tests the logic, memory, and burn-in functions of ICs.  King Yuan also specializes in IC reeling, packaging, and wafer grinding.

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

Global Unichip Corporation designs and produces a wide variety of silicon chips.

ASPEED Technology Inc. is a fabless IC-design house that specializes in server management, PC/AV extensions solution, desktop virtualization and security enhancement. The Company's products range from silicon chips, IPs to software products that enable sophisticated SOC- centric multimedia, praphics and new work applications.

Powertech Technology Inc. tests, packages, and assembles integrated circuits (ICS).  The Company's products and services include memory product test and various kinds of IC package services, such as thin small-outline package (TSOP) services.

Asmedia Technology Inc designs mulitmedia integrated control(IC) chip and high frequency mixed mode IC chip. The company's products inlcude high speed digit switch, nand flash controller and super speed USB controller.

Vanguard International Semiconductor Corporation offers integrated circuit foundry services.  The Company manufactures 0.18um logic, mixed-signal, analog, high voltage, low power, CMOS RF, flash, embedded memory, and bipolar CMOS DMOS semiconductors.

Globalwafers Co., Ltd. specializes in silicon wafer manufacturing and also provides solar wafers and crystal rods. The Company possesses a complete production line from ingot growth, slicing, etching, diffusion, polishing to epitaxy. Their products include Epi wafers, polished wafers, etched wafers, ultra thin wafers and deep diffusion wafers.

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

ROHM COMPANY LIMITED manufactures custom linear integrated circuits and semiconductor devices for use primarily in consumer electronics.  The Company has plants and sales offices worldwide.  Rohm's subsidiaries include Wako Electric and Apollo Electronics.

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Sanan Optoelectronics Co., Ltd. operates in the business of researching, producing and selling of LED epitaxial wafers and wafers.

SCREEN Holdings Co Ltd.  manufactures and sell semiconductors, FPD devices, commercial printing and printed circuit boards(PCB). The company also provides additional services for its products.

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures discrete semiconductor devices. The Company's main products are High Voltage Diode, Silicon Rectifier Diode, Silicon Bridge Rectifier, MWO High Voltage Silicon Diode and special High Voltage Silicon Diode .

Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor (002129 CH)

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

Rambus Inc. designs, develops, licenses, and markets high-speed chip-to-chip interface technology to enhance the performance and cost-effectiveness of consumer electronics, computer systems, and other electronic systems.  The Company licenses semiconductor companies to manufacture and sell memory and logic ICs incorporating Rambus interface technology.

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

Continued net loss in 2Q24, with marginal gross margin improvement. Server demand strong, but PC and mobile flat. Street may need to lower 2024E...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

Q124 revenue NT$ 9.5 billion, +9.2% QoQ & +47.9% YoY. Larger peers focus on HBM, structural reduction in capacity & shortages caused by Taiwan...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nanya Technology: Latest Results & Guidance Make 2024E Consensus Hard to Achieve; Underperform

Continued net loss in 2Q24, with marginal gross margin improvement. Server demand strong, but PC and mobile flat. Street may need to lower 2024E...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Technology Sees DRAM Industry Pricing Rising Through 2024E; But Is Underperforming Financially

​Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya. Tailwinds Mount Albeit Profits Still Elude

Q124 revenue NT$ 9.5 billion, +9.2% QoQ & +47.9% YoY. Larger peers focus on HBM, structural reduction in capacity & shortages caused by Taiwan...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Nanya's Results to Provide Latest Color on DRAM Post Earthquake; Short Int Rising

​Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Micron Leapfrogging Into HBM3E for AI; Nanya Lagging Peers But Poised to Benefit

​Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Nanya Tech's gross margin rebound appears to be lagging Memory peers. DRAM pricing is expected to improve through 2024E, but its mostly due to...

Nanya Tech to report results -- Potential insight into DRAM outlook amid Micron's earthquake impact evaluation. We note increased short interest....

Micron's strong results and forward margin guidance lead to soaring shares, with successful leapfrogging into HBM memory space and high demand...