Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect total revenue will grow by 24% in 3Q23, as catering has been recovering in China.</li>
<li>We expect Meituan can still earn positive operating profit 3Q23, as the company cut salespeople’s bonuses.</li>
<li>We also believe that the stock has an upside of 87% for year end 2024.</li>
</ul>


We expect total revenue will grow by 24% in 3Q23, as catering has been recovering in China.
We expect Meituan can still earn positive operating profit 3Q23, as the company cut salespeople’s bonuses.
We also believe that the stock has an upside of 87% for year end 2024.


MT (Meituan 3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Rev Up by 24% YoY and 80% Upside, Buy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week that trend moderated significantly.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND breaks a 17-week inflow streak with HK$2.1bn of net outflows entirely driven, it appears, by relatively few accounts punting large size in local (HK-listed) ETFs</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat brand-spanking-new Quiddity HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor.
SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week that trend moderated significantly.
SOUTHBOUND breaks a 17-week inflow streak with HK$2.1bn of net outflows entirely driven, it appears, by relatively few accounts punting large size in local (HK-listed) ETFs


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 17 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs Pause, Tech + ETFs Break 16wk Inflow Streak

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>For a second review running, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> has avoided being deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>That means <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.</li>
<li>There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.</li>
</ul>


For a second review running, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) has avoided being deleted from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
That means China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) misses out on index inclusion, but there is still hope for the next one.
There does not appear to be any significant positioning on either stock and any large moves early in the coming week could be short lived.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 19th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 19th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), HSBC (5 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 19th): Meituan, Tencent, Hsbc

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Credit

<ul><li>Credit stories remain sound: Chinese TMT issuers are generally cash-rich with solid liquidity profiles. Most of them are in net cash positions and have strong coverage ratios at their rating levels. See Table 6 on p.7.</li><li>Shorter-dated XIAOMIs remain our top picks: We like Xiaomi for its solid credit story.</li><li>The sizeable net cash position and operating cash inflow offset the impact of higher R&amp;D expenses, especially those on EV. XIAOMI 3 3/8 04/29/30 (Baa2/BBB-/BBB) and XIAOMI 2 7/8 07/14/31 (Baa2/BBB-/BBB) offer 121bps yield pick-up over JD 3 3/8’30 (Baa1/A-/-) and 12bps over MEITUA 3.05’30 (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Credit stories remain sound: Chinese TMT issuers are generally cash-rich with solid liquidity profiles. Most of them are in net cash positions and have strong coverage ratios at their rating levels. See Table 6 on p.7.Shorter-dated XIAOMIs remain our top picks: We like Xiaomi for its solid credit story.The sizeable net cash position and operating cash inflow offset the impact of higher R&amp;D expenses, especially those on EV. XIAOMI 3 3/8 04/29/30 (Baa2/BBB-/BBB) and XIAOMI 2 7/8 07/14/31 (Baa2/BBB-/BBB) offer 121bps yield pick-up over JD 3 3/8’30 (Baa1/A-/-) and 12bps over MEITUA 3.05’30 (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China TMT: Maintain Buy XIAOMI’30-31s, XIAOMI 0’27 (CB)

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Songcheng Performance Development Co., LTD invests, develops and operates theme parks and tourism cultural performing arts. The Company's major projects include the Sungcheng theme park and the cultural performing arts musical "The Romance of the Song Dynasty".

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Co.,Ltd. owns and operates hotels.  The Company also provides catering, business, entertainment, and other services. Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels conducts its business in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang Internationa (600754 CH)

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. develops online games. The Company mainly develops, operates, and sells computer terminal network game and mobile terminal network game products. Giant Network Group provides services in China.

China CYTS Tours Holding Co., Ltd. provides travel information and arrangement services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures medical instrument, provides system integration services for the insurance industry, and develops real estate.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates a network of Company-owned and franchise Domino's Pizza stores, located throughout the United States and in other countries.  The Company also operates regional dough manufacturing and distribution centers in the contiguous United States and outside the United States.

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

MT (Meituan 3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Rev Up by 24% YoY and 80% Upside, Buy

We expect total revenue will grow by 24% in 3Q23, as catering has been recovering in China. We expect MT can still make positive operating profit...

Ming Lu

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND (To 17 Nov 23); High-Div SOEs Pause, Tech + ETFs Break 16wk Inflow Streak

HK Connect (SOUTHBOUND) saw its first net sell week in four months this past week, with the net sell driven by large ETF sell flows from a small...

Travis Lundy

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Uses Up Another Life

In a surprise, there are no constituent changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$1.85bn...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 19th): Meituan, Tencent, Hsbc

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were Meituan (3690 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China TMT: Maintain Buy XIAOMI’30-31s, XIAOMI 0’27 (CB)

Chinese TMT issuers are generally cash-rich with solid liquidity profiles. Most of them are in net cash positions and have strong coverage ratios...

CMB International

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