Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

Equity Bottom-Up

PDD Holdings Inc. is a multinational commerce group that owns and operates a portfolio of businesses. The Company focuses on digital economy so that local communities and small businesses can benefit from the increased productivity and new opportunities. PDD Holdings has built a network of sourcing, logistics, and fulfillment capabilities for its underlying businesses.

<ul>
<li>We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.</li>
<li>Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.</li>
<li>The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo  reaping greatest value.</li>
</ul>


We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.
Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.
The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo  reaping greatest value.


Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding Limited provides online sales services. The Company provides internet infrastructure, electronic commerce, online financial, and internet content services through its subsidiaries. Alibaba Group Holding offers its products and services worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.</li>
<li>The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. </li>
<li>Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. </li>
</ul>


Consensus underestimates earnings growth potential of Alibaba in coming years given tangible progress in its internal overhaul and improving China macro backdrop.
The September quarter is likely the end of the company’s earnings slowdown tracing back to 1HFY23, and we expect earnings recovery in FY2H25 will trigger major re-rating. 
Fundamental turnaround and gradual bottoming-out of China property market going into 2025 will easily lift Alibaba’s valuation to above 15x P/E. 


2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

<ul>
<li>We believe that Meituan will exit 2024 on a high note with stronger earnings growth in 2H24.</li>
<li>With moderating rivalry with Douyin and normalizing marketing spending, Meituan’s long-term profitability is on clearer display observed from its 2Q results.</li>
<li>We expect the company to generate ~RMB60 billion adjusted net profit by 2026, implying 25% CAGR and 17x P/E on FY26 earnings.</li>
</ul>


We believe that Meituan will exit 2024 on a high note with stronger earnings growth in 2H24.
With moderating rivalry with Douyin and normalizing marketing spending, Meituan’s long-term profitability is on clearer display observed from its 2Q results.
We expect the company to generate ~RMB60 billion adjusted net profit by 2026, implying 25% CAGR and 17x P/E on FY26 earnings.


Meituan (3690 HK): Assessing Its Long-Term Profitability

Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited manufactures cement products. The Company produces silicate cements, slag silicate cements, composite silicate cements, cement clinkers, and other products. Anhui Conch Cement Cement markets its products throughout China and worldwide.

<ul>
<li>Recent significant clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region boost our confidence that 4Q will likely see the company’s earnings double Y/Y, ending 14 consecutive quarters of decline since 2Q21.</li>
<li>Beijing’s bazooka stimulus package to lift the property market and revive economy also improve industry outlook in 2025.</li>
<li>Consensus has been slow to adjust for the changes in industry dynamics. Our 2024 earnings is now 15% above consensus. We expect upward earnings revision will support P/B expansion.</li>
</ul>


Recent significant clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region boost our confidence that 4Q will likely see the company’s earnings double Y/Y, ending 14 consecutive quarters of decline since 2Q21.
Beijing’s bazooka stimulus package to lift the property market and revive economy also improve industry outlook in 2025.
Consensus has been slow to adjust for the changes in industry dynamics. Our 2024 earnings is now 15% above consensus. We expect upward earnings revision will support P/B expansion.


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Sharp Price Hikes Boost Our Confidence in 4Q Turnaround

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Getting China property right is essential for investors who follow China equities because most companies, from cyclical to consumer, can’t be insulated from its downturn.</li>
<li>China housing market is not collapsing as people feared; instead we see signs it is bottoming out with Xi’s pursuit of high-quality growth model starting paying off.</li>
<li>We expect the sector’s strain on Chinese economy will ease moving into 2025/26, setting a favorable backdrop for most China’s consumer-oriented stocks.</li>
</ul>


Getting China property right is essential for investors who follow China equities because most companies, from cyclical to consumer, can’t be insulated from its downturn.
China housing market is not collapsing as people feared; instead we see signs it is bottoming out with Xi’s pursuit of high-quality growth model starting paying off.
We expect the sector’s strain on Chinese economy will ease moving into 2025/26, setting a favorable backdrop for most China’s consumer-oriented stocks.


China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

With a blend of sell-side and buy-side perspectives, Eric has covered and researched hundreds of Greater China equities in TMT and consumer spaces - two sectors woven together by the overarching thesis of technology empowering consumption. 

Eric is highly experienced in fundamental equity long short strategy. He seeks to produce differentiated and original research that combines holistic qualitative framework, unique angles and robust modelling. The process helps gain deep insights into critical value drivers misunderstood by the market, which results in mis-priced stocks and hence long/short opportunities.

Eric Chen
Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge

Comparison between Alibaba and Pinduoduo at similar growth stages reveals Pinduoduo's efficiency edge through higher take-rate despite higher...

Eric Chen

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Meituan (3690 HK): Assessing Its Long-Term Profitability

We expect accelerating earnings growth for Meituan in 2H24, and see 2Q results offer insights into its long-term profitability. Adjusted net...

Eric Chen

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Sharp Price Hikes Boost Our Confidence in 4Q Turnaround

Clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region signal potential for company's earnings to double in 4Q, ending 14 quarters of decline.

Eric Chen

China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

Getting China property right is crucial for China equity investors. The housing market is not collapsing but stabilizing in our view, gradually...

Eric Chen

Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge

​Comparison between Alibaba and Pinduoduo at similar growth stages reveals Pinduoduo's efficiency edge through higher take-rate despite higher...

Eric Chen

2025 High Conviction Idea: Alibaba On the Cusp of Major Re-Rating

​We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

Eric Chen

Meituan (3690 HK): Assessing Its Long-Term Profitability

​We expect accelerating earnings growth for Meituan in 2H24, and see 2Q results offer insights into its long-term profitability. Adjusted net...

Eric Chen

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Sharp Price Hikes Boost Our Confidence in 4Q Turnaround

​Clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region signal potential for company's earnings to double in 4Q, ending 14 quarters of decline.

Eric Chen

China Property: Silver Lining Through the Fog

Getting China property right is crucial for China equity investors. The housing market is not collapsing but stabilizing in our view, gradually...

Eric Chen

Comparison between Alibaba and Pinduoduo at similar growth stages reveals Pinduoduo's efficiency edge through higher take-rate despite higher...

We expect up to 20% earnings CAGR amidst improving China macro backdrop will easily lift Alibaba's valuation to above 15x P/E by FY26, with the...

We expect accelerating earnings growth for Meituan in 2H24, and see 2Q results offer insights into its long-term profitability. Adjusted net...

Clinker price hikes in Yangtze river region signal potential for company's earnings to double in 4Q, ending 14 quarters of decline.