HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25.</li>
<li>The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice.</li>
<li>We expect that MT’s price has a downside of 30% in the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25.
The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice.
We expect that MT’s price has a downside of 30% in the next twelve months.


Meituan (3690 HK): 3Q25, Discount Campaign Not Ended After Authorities Warned Twice

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Xiaomi, Alibaba, ZTE, Ke, Petrochina.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Xiaomi, Alibaba, ZTE, Ke, Petrochina.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Xiaomi, Alibaba, ZTE, Ke, Petrochina

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Ke, China Mobile, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Petrochina, SMIC, HKEx.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Ke, China Mobile, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Petrochina, SMIC, HKEx.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Dec 19th): Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Ke, China Mobile

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

The market's unanimous bearish stance on Meituan creates opportunities in 2026, given its low P/B and high net cash-to-share price. Margins are so...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Meituan (3690 HK): 3Q25, Discount Campaign Not Ended After Authorities Warned Twice

Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25. The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice. We...

Ming Lu

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Short Interest Weekly: Xiaomi, Alibaba, ZTE, Ke, Petrochina

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 12th and highlight short interest changes in Xiaomi, Alibaba, ZTE, Ke,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Dec 19th): Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Ke, China Mobile

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Xiaomi, Meituan, Alibaba, Ping An Insurance, Ke, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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