Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. </li>
<li>GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.</li>
</ul>


GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. 
GoTo, is an Indonesian holding company, was formed in May 2021 as a result of a merger between Gojek, leading player in ride hailing, and Tokopedia, leading e-commerce player.
In this note, we will talk about the company's valuation.


GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Local news reported an unnamed expert suggesting ByteDance might be buying Eleme for US$7bn, leading to share of Meituan to fall;</li>
<li>While we believe (1) buying a food delivery business to complement Douyin’s in-store business makes some sense and...</li>
<li>(2) ByteDance has been aggressive in pushing the boundary of its businesses, an entry into domestic food delivery is a daunting challenge that yields very little benefits for ByteDance;</li>
</ul>


Local news reported an unnamed expert suggesting ByteDance might be buying Eleme for US$7bn, leading to share of Meituan to fall;
While we believe (1) buying a food delivery business to complement Douyin’s in-store business makes some sense and...
(2) ByteDance has been aggressive in pushing the boundary of its businesses, an entry into domestic food delivery is a daunting challenge that yields very little benefits for ByteDance;


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) Company Update]: Why ByteDance’s Purchase of Eleme Is a Bad Idea?

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>We don’t consider Douyin an existential threat to Meituan, but we see the company’s growth increasingly be constrained by its business model itself.</li>
<li>We believe Meituan will disappoint the market with regard to its bottom line growth in 2024, barring major overhaul of its new initiative businesses.</li>
<li>Meituan will have to make tough choice between growth and profitability and either scenario won’t bode well for its valuation. We value the company at RMB410 billion, meaning 18% downside.</li>
</ul>


We don’t consider Douyin an existential threat to Meituan, but we see the company’s growth increasingly be constrained by its business model itself.
We believe Meituan will disappoint the market with regard to its bottom line growth in 2024, barring major overhaul of its new initiative businesses.
Meituan will have to make tough choice between growth and profitability and either scenario won’t bode well for its valuation. We value the company at RMB410 billion, meaning 18% downside.


2024 High Conviction Idea: More Downside for Meituan

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week saw reversion.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw net buys of HK$3.5bn this week, breaking a nascent sell streak. Meituan dip-buying Wednesday to Friday was worth the entire net buy.</li>
<li>High-Div SOEs remain mixed. CNOOC (883) saw decent net buying, and China Mobile saw decent net selling. Again.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows the last several weeks clearly indicated a momentum move. The top net sells were all down. The top buys were all up. This week saw reversion.
SOUTHBOUND saw net buys of HK$3.5bn this week, breaking a nascent sell streak. Meituan dip-buying Wednesday to Friday was worth the entire net buy.
High-Div SOEs remain mixed. CNOOC (883) saw decent net buying, and China Mobile saw decent net selling. Again.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.</li>
<li>Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.</li>
<li>Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C3Q23 top line (1.0%)/0.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP net income (9.7%)/8.3% vs our estimate/consensus. Subsidies and investment in in-store business is the main reason for bottom-line miss.
Meituan in-store GTV increased 90% YoY in 3Q23, effectively counteracted Douyin’s attack and maintained size ratio at 3:1 vs. Douyin in-store, which scarified profit.
Meituan OPM lowered 2.5ppt QoQ to 4.4% in 3Q23, and we expect it decline to 2.4% in 4Q23.


[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Songcheng Performance Development Co., LTD invests, develops and operates theme parks and tourism cultural performing arts. The Company's major projects include the Sungcheng theme park and the cultural performing arts musical "The Romance of the Song Dynasty".

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Co.,Ltd. owns and operates hotels.  The Company also provides catering, business, entertainment, and other services. Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels conducts its business in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang Internationa (600754 CH)

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. develops online games. The Company mainly develops, operates, and sells computer terminal network game and mobile terminal network game products. Giant Network Group provides services in China.

China CYTS Tours Holding Co., Ltd. provides travel information and arrangement services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures medical instrument, provides system integration services for the insurance industry, and develops real estate.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates a network of Company-owned and franchise Domino's Pizza stores, located throughout the United States and in other countries.  The Company also operates regional dough manufacturing and distribution centers in the contiguous United States and outside the United States.

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) Company Update]: Why ByteDance’s Purchase of Eleme Is a Bad Idea?

Local news suggests that ByteDance may acquire Eleme for $7bn, causing Meituan's shares to drop. However, entering the food delivery market may...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction Idea: More Downside for Meituan

We believe Meituan will disappoint market in terms of bottom line growth in 2024 due to the constraints of its business model. We valued the...

Eric Chen

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

Quiddity's SOUTHBOUND Connect Monitor: Large net buys on Meituan after the dip make up all of the last week's net buys. Other names see smaller...

Travis Lundy

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GoTo IPO - Valuation - Missed the Tide, Boat Won’t Rise

GoTo aims to raise around US$1.25bn from a local listing, which will mainly be targeted at domestic investors. In this note, we talk about its...

Sumeet Singh

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) Company Update]: Why ByteDance’s Purchase of Eleme Is a Bad Idea?

​Local news suggests that ByteDance may acquire Eleme for $7bn, causing Meituan's shares to drop. However, entering the food delivery market may...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2024 High Conviction Idea: More Downside for Meituan

We believe Meituan will disappoint market in terms of bottom line growth in 2024 due to the constraints of its business model. We valued the...

Eric Chen

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 1 Dec 23); Meituan Dip-Buyings Leads Inflows; CNOOC Vs 941 on SOEs

Quiddity's SOUTHBOUND Connect Monitor: Large net buys on Meituan after the dip make up all of the last week's net buys. Other names see smaller...

Travis Lundy

[Meituan (3690 HK, BUY, TP HK$118) TP Change]: Deeply Cultivate Domestic While Wait for Overseas

​Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Local news suggests that ByteDance may acquire Eleme for $7bn, causing Meituan's shares to drop. However, entering the food delivery market may...

Meituan's Q3 results show lower than expected top line and net income due to subsidies and investment in in-store business. Despite increased...