External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.</li>
<li>Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. </li>
<li>We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.
Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. 
We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.


[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

<ul><li>Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.</li><li>NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

<ul>
<li>Real Estate Industry Update: Housing bureaus in China’s first tier cities pledge to draft supportive policy on home purchase（+）</li>
<li>2150HK: Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY in July 2023（/）</li>
<li>LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng update August vehicle delivery results (+/+//)</li>
</ul>


Real Estate Industry Update: Housing bureaus in China’s first tier cities pledge to draft supportive policy on home purchase（+）
2150HK: Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY in July 2023（/）
LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto, NIO and Xpeng update August vehicle delivery results (+/+//)


China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery

<ul>
<li>The phenomenon of Chinese vendors taking terms to launch price wars, diminishing industry’s profitability is a headache. </li>
<li>We conclude the reason is China’s technology lead is so slim that price wars against each other is the only way to stay in the game;</li>
<li>Although renewable energy has long and expansive value chains, transportation is a separate node. China’s success in EV has strategic value for a wide range of industries.</li>
</ul>


The phenomenon of Chinese vendors taking terms to launch price wars, diminishing industry’s profitability is a headache. 
We conclude the reason is China’s technology lead is so slim that price wars against each other is the only way to stay in the game;
Although renewable energy has long and expansive value chains, transportation is a separate node. China’s success in EV has strategic value for a wide range of industries.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023.

CMB International

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1) strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1...

CMB International

China TMT Update-BEKE/2150.HK/LI/NIO/XPEV-Supportive Policy on Home Purchase;August Vehicle Delivery

China’s first tier cities draft supportive policy on home purchase;Nayuki teahouse average store revenue remains flattish YoY;LI/NIO/XPEV: Li Auto,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Investors Tolerate Amazon, Why Not China New Energy?

Although renewable energy has long and expansive value chains, transportation is a separate node. China’s success in EV has strategic value for a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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