China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$57)TP Change]: MEGA Is the Next Catalyst…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Earnings Review]: Intact Model Cycle Drives Growth in 2023

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US) Target Price Change]: An Emerging Powerhouse…Reiterate as Our Top Pick

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$40) Earnings Preview]: Riding Intact Model Cycle in 2023

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.</li>
<li>Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. </li>
<li>We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.</li>
</ul>


We expect Li Auto to report 2Q23 top line and GPM 2.3%/in line vs. cons. We think Li Auto’s share gain in Q1/Q2 reflects market consolidation.
Our channel check found its weekly order intake remains robust at ~10k. We expect the capacity ramp-up to lead to Q3 delivery of ~100k, 12% vs. cons. 
We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, due to 1)  strong model cycle (L9/L8/L7) and channel expansion; 2) margin upside. Li’s MEGA BEV could be the next catalyst.


[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$55) TP Change]: Witnessing Consolidation…Reiterate as Our Top Pick