Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable</li>
<li>We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition</li>
<li>We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

<ul>
<li>Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. </li>
<li>Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. </li>
<li>We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto's (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation. 
Based on information released, we dialed up LI's BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%. 
We raise LI's TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, the controlling shareholder, disclosed a cash or scrip non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a> at US$25.66 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares.</li>
<li>While the offer is 22.2% above the IPO price, it is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. </li>
</ul>



Geely Auto (175 HK), the controlling shareholder, disclosed a cash or scrip non-binding proposal for ZEEKR (ZK US) at US$25.66 per ADS or 12.3 newly issued Geely shares.
While the offer is 22.2% above the IPO price, it is unattractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and average sell-side price targets. 
The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the timing of a binding proposal. 


ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1211 HK/9863 HK: Summary of April 2025 Sales for Major Chinese Automakers(+/+)</li>
<li>1211 HK:The foundation laying ceremony for BYD's passenger vehicle factory in Cambodia has taken place, with an expected official production launch in the fourth quarter of this year (/)</li>
<li>1211 HK: BYD Launches Fourth Vehicle Carrier Ship and Prepares Fifth for Export Expansion.(+)</li>
</ul>


1211 HK/9863 HK: Summary of April 2025 Sales for Major Chinese Automakers(+/+)
1211 HK:The foundation laying ceremony for BYD's passenger vehicle factory in Cambodia has taken place, with an expected official production launch in the fourth quarter of this year (/)
1211 HK: BYD Launches Fourth Vehicle Carrier Ship and Prepares Fifth for Export Expansion.(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/9863 HK/XPEV US/LI US/ATAT US/Macro

<ul>
<li>LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. </li>
<li>We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market</li>
<li>We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.</li>
</ul>


LI Auto (LI) reported C3Q24 top line, non-GAAP operating profit and GAAP net income 2.0%, 68% and in line vs. our estimates. 
We expect LI’s share price to be range bound until its BEV SUV to debut in C2Q25. Facing a crowded market
We raise TP from US$22 to 25 but keep rating at SELL.


[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

China

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

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Li Auto (LI US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

The offer is light. The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/9863 HK/XPEV US/LI US/ATAT US/Macro

Chinese automakers BYD had a successful April 2025 sales month, with a new factory in Cambodia and plans for export expansion.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

​Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

​Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ZEEKR (ZK US): Geely Auto’s Light Non-Binding Offer at US$25.66 Per ADS

The offer is light. The shareholder vote is a formality as Geely and concert parties exceed the two-thirds voting threshold. The key risk is the...

Arun George

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1211 HK/9863 HK/XPEV US/LI US/ATAT US/Macro

​Chinese automakers BYD had a successful April 2025 sales month, with a new factory in Cambodia and plans for export expansion.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

​LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Li Auto's revenue and net income fall short of estimates, leading to reduced forecasts and a lowered price target of US$20 with a SELL rating.

Li Auto's share surged 13% on photos of upcoming BEV SUV, leading to increased revenue forecast but maintaining sell rating.

Chinese automakers BYD had a successful April 2025 sales month, with a new factory in Cambodia and plans for export expansion.

LI Auto reported solid financial results for the third quarter, but its share price is expected to remain stagnant until the debut of its BEV SUV...