China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule

[Li Auto (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) TP Change]: Excellence Under Pressure but Challenge Still Loom Big

[Li Auto (LI US, BUY, TP US$22) TP Change]: Expanding Outside of SUV Is Still the US$mn Question

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable</li>
<li>We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition</li>
<li>We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.</li>
</ul>


Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
We cut LI's TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround