External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.</li><li>The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.</li><li>The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese equities earlier.The EUR, CHF and the JPY are all holding very minor gains on the session, with high beta FX underperforming, however.The JPY’s stability looks a little curious considering its sensitivity to US yields recently but broader USD (DXY) gains are looking a bit stretched relative to fair value based on short-term spreads alone, suggesting the primary driver of USD appreciation is coming from geo-political/market risk influences. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Ending a quarter-century of stagnation, Japan's nominal GDP rose 3.04% in the year to Jun'23, with per capita nominal GDP up 3.51% and per capita real GDP 1.91%. </li>
<li>With the decisive defeat of deflation, core CPI inflation was 2.8%YoY in Aug'23, enabling 21 consecutive months of YoY wage growth. The fiscal deficit likely declines to 3.5% of GDP.</li>
<li>Rebounding exports will restore a trade surplus this quarter, bolstering the current account surplus to 2.7% of GDP this year and 3.3% next. Stay overweight Japan. </li>
</ul>


Ending a quarter-century of stagnation, Japan's nominal GDP rose 3.04% in the year to Jun'23, with per capita nominal GDP up 3.51% and per capita real GDP 1.91%. 
With the decisive defeat of deflation, core CPI inflation was 2.8%YoY in Aug'23, enabling 21 consecutive months of YoY wage growth. The fiscal deficit likely declines to 3.5% of GDP.
Rebounding exports will restore a trade surplus this quarter, bolstering the current account surplus to 2.7% of GDP this year and 3.3% next. Stay overweight Japan. 


Japan: The End of Japanification as Rising Nominal GDP Spurs Virtuous Circles

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.</li><li>The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.</li><li>The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attention</li><li>BoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).</li><li>Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.</li></ul>

Loads of moves to address but we’ve condensed our scope for you to catch up on the handful we dedicate marked attentionBoJ inflation forecast and presumed policy-change. Mounting pressure on the CNY (and CNY).Monetary trends in USD and EUR. The continued selloff in US Treasuries. Biden’s trip to Israel.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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FX Daily - USD Firmer on Yields, Risk Aversion

The USD is stronger overall, supported by rising US yields (10s touched 4.98% earlier) and weaker global stocks following a tumble (2%+) in Chinese...

Scotiabank

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

Japan: The End of Japanification as Rising Nominal GDP Spurs Virtuous Circles

Decisive end to deflation (core inflation at 2.8%YoY, 21 months of YoY wage gains) sets off a virtuous circle: per capital nominal GDP up 3.5%,...

Prasenjit K. Basu

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Uncertainty

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors...

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel

Welcome to this week’s edition of our weekly recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’. Which fool said macro was boring? Loads of moves to address but we’ve...

Steno Research

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