Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.</li><li>If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.</li><li>The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?</li></ul>

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting concluding Oct 31.If this was not a deliberate trial balloon to try and push USDJPY lower from the 150 mark (we doubt that), then we ought to take this message seriously.The decision to increase the inflation forecast again is essentially a no-brainer conclusion given how firm inflation has been relative to forecasts, but the big question is whether it matters for the policy decision?

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.</li><li>Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.</li><li>European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

FX Market Update—The USD is trading firmer overall but the “market-weighted” DXY is trading off its earlier highs ahead of the North American session and effectively continues to consolidate within the October trading range.Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.European stocks and US equity futures are steady to lower but bonds have weakened. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

<ul><li>Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage</li><li>USDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US Policy</li><li>The Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums</li></ul>

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverageUSDCNY &amp; USDJPY could prove to be the bellwethers on the cycle and US PolicyThe Geopolitical mess still rhymes well with higher credit risk premiums

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

<ul><li>We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.</li><li>We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.</li><li>Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.</li></ul>

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Japan Watch: Time to care about the BoJ again!

Yesterday, Reuters wrote an article with a few sources hinting at another increase in the inflation forecast profile of the BoJ at the meeting...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Edges Higher, CAD Slips Ahead of CPI

Risk appetite has softened somewhat as investors focus on developments in Israel/Gaza. President Biden plans to visit Israel tomorrow.

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

EM by EM #25 Lighting the fuse in the Middle East?

Printing Oil instead of borrowing USD is what separates EM’s right now- and the Saudi’s still have leverage. USDCNY & USDJPY could prove to be the...

Steno Research

Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out

We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)