bearish
Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out
808 Views11 Oct 2023 09:22
SUMMARY
- We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.
- We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.
- Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.
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