External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to the FOMC meeting outcome.</li><li>Stocks are trading lower in Europe and US equity futures are softer. Bonds are marginally better bid, pushing 10Y yields down 1-2bps.</li><li>The JPY is particularly weak, trading at its lowest since 2008 against the EUR and nearing recent, multi-year lows against the USD just under 152.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to the FOMC meeting outcome.Stocks are trading lower in Europe and US equity futures are softer. Bonds are marginally better bid, pushing 10Y yields down 1-2bps.The JPY is particularly weak, trading at its lowest since 2008 against the EUR and nearing recent, multi-year lows against the USD just under 152.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Strengthens into Fed Decision

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.</li><li>Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.</li><li>The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.</li></ul>

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.</li><li>The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.</li><li>It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).</li></ul>

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak policy last week.The BoJ has, with barely no exceptions, leaked all their policy moves to the press before actually moving the needle, and dynamics post the meeting is nothing less than a classic “buy the rumor sell the news”.It looks like markets had hoped for some clarity on the path for the policy rate, which they weren’t given this morning (more on the BoJ meeting here).

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Zooming out reveals that the Bank of Japan has not shifted to a different monetary policy regime.</li>
<li>The negative relationship between total debt-to-GDP and interest rates has been confirmed once again.</li>
<li>With the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates more than three times this year, the case for a short yen position is thin.</li>
</ul>


Zooming out reveals that the Bank of Japan has not shifted to a different monetary policy regime.
The negative relationship between total debt-to-GDP and interest rates has been confirmed once again.
With the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates more than three times this year, the case for a short yen position is thin.


Japan Removes Negative Interest Rate Policy – The End of an Era and Long Yen?

<ul><li>The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).</li><li>Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.</li><li>The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.</li></ul>

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

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FX Daily - USD Strengthens into Fed Decision

The USD is trading firmer across the board against the major currencies and markets generally have a cautious undertone as investors look ahead to...

Scotiabank

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy. Afterwards we will have a...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Commodities are back on, and so are cyclical equities

Finally some action from the BoJ earlier today with a 10 bps hike, in line with market expectations after it was rumored that they would tweak...

Steno Research

Japan Removes Negative Interest Rate Policy – The End of an Era and Long Yen?

Zooming out quickly reveals that Japan has not entered a new monetary policy regime. Yet, neither does the Federal Reserve.

Jeroen Blokland

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major...

Steno Research

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