Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place</li>
<li>The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates</li>
<li>Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place
The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates
Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again


Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging populations, long been the striking worry for many economists.</li><li>Post-Covid inflation has shifted the narrative however, and fears of it becoming structural has taken over as the new doom-scenario globally.</li><li>For Japan though, inflation is not so much a fear as a hope, and we see signs that Japan is in fact achieving sustained inflation.</li></ul>

Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging populations, long been the striking worry for many economists.Post-Covid inflation has shifted the narrative however, and fears of it becoming structural has taken over as the new doom-scenario globally.For Japan though, inflation is not so much a fear as a hope, and we see signs that Japan is in fact achieving sustained inflation.

Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?</li><li>We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.</li><li>This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.</li></ul>

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from policymakers, including the verbal FX intervention from MoF and BoJ today, and the Spanish HICP numbers, which we hit right on the mark! The benign base effects and dovish outlook has potentially paved the way for a cut in June, but what should you look out for in the meantime?We give you 5 topics from our watchlist.This week we are watching out for the following 5 topics within global macro.

5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP release</li><li>Market leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by Fed</li><li>Yen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Powell's dovish tone at the press conference led to initial market reaction, but subsequent dollar rally due to revised growth and inflation forecasts in the SCP releaseMarket leaning towards higher median dot in SCP, but overall outlook remains for shallower cutting cycle by FedYen vulnerability due to negative real yields despite BOJ rate hikes, yen weakening may impact other Asian currencies and marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.</li><li>Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.</li><li>A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is a little softer for a second day running as it continues to edge away from recent range peaks.Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy prospects remain unclear.A slightly firmer yuan, supported by the PBoC setting another strong fixing rate, has added to pressure on the USD somewhat in broad terms. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Japan

The Japanese yen is the official currency of Japan. 

Price Gauge
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JPY (USDJPY CURNCY)

Whither the Yen?

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?

Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from...

Steno Research

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy...

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Whither the Yen?

​The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Reflation Watch: Has Japan turned a page, and have markets gotten ahead of themselves?

Stagnant growth and price deflation have defined the term Japanization, and, due to rapidly rising debt levels in conjunction with aging...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch – Cyclicals, Baltimore Bridge, ECB, USDJPY & Sentiment

Loads of stuff are going on in Global Macro, with global equities on the rise yet again, the JPY struggling a bit after unsuccessful attempts from...

Steno Research

Global FX: An Uncomfortable Setup for USD Bulls and Bears

The dovish tone from Powell led to a dollar rally, with potential future rate hikes and mixed signals for FX traders, particularly impacting Asian...

At Any Rate

FX Daily - USD Drifts Lower in Quiet Trade

Trading appears light, with markets not particularly incentivized to move the USD significantly higher, or that much lower, while monetary policy...

Scotiabank

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...