Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.</li><li>As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.</li><li>The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch! Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems safe to say that markets are now more concerned about liquidity/growth than rates to reiterate ourselves, as equity markets have not attributed the U-turn in rates expectations any value whatsoever.As the growth and liquidity outlook still looks decent for the weeks/months ahead, we keep our long risk asset bias.The rates outlook looks to have a bigger impact in FX and especially the carry-heavy side of this asset class, and with the market likely going to up-hawk expectations even further if inflation picks up momentum, it could be time for a revival of the USD – FX volatility has at least started to pick up a bit of momentum (bullish USD).

Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.</li><li>Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.</li><li>Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Positioning among Non-Commercial (speculative) traders on the USD picked up in the past week’s CFTC data.Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.Data shows that Real Money (institutional traders) added to their net short USD exposure (by USD1.8bn), however.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.</li><li>The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.</li><li>The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial.The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a certain extent been out of sync with the business cycle for a while.The yield curve inverted during the summer of 2022, but we are yet to see a recession in the US economy, which is a bit out of the ordinary given the typical validity of the yield curve inversion signal.

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.</li>
<li>This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?</li>
<li>That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.</li>
</ul>


Bitcoin rose nearly 20% this week, and the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs is huge, but with a twist.
This week's US personal income data provides yet another chart showing that the recession is already behind us. But will the US consumer keep spending?
That new The Economist cover does not bode well for stocks, but the moving average does. Yet, sentiment remains in Frenzy.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

<ul><li>The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.</li><li>Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.</li><li>In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.</li></ul>

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch, where we assess the tradeable themes and discuss our portfolio composition.In this revamped version of the series, we will touch upon the developments in our Macro Alpha Portfolio and our Digital Assets Portfolio.

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

Japan

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Positioning Watch – Are the unpopular bets back in town?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch!Equity markets continue their drift higher for yet another week, and it seems...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - USD Sentiment Improves

Net speculative USD longs aggregated across contracts in the major currencies we monitor for this report rose USD1.6bn in the week to USD2.4bn.

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE Upcoming?

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial. The cyclical rotation continues in markets, but interest rates have to a...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Please Give a Warm Welcome to BITCOIN

Welcome to the Weekly Market Monitor, keeping you updated on the week's most important charts and developments in financial markets.

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: What if We Add a Rate Cut to This Fire..

The cyclical rotation is slowly but slowly rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt...

Steno Research

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