Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore bounced from the 100 USD/ton level and has maintained a rangebound level between 95 and 130 USD/ton for the last three years.</li>
<li>Inventories at the ports continued to increase, surpassing 150 million tons, representing about 38 days of inventory (normalized levels around 35 days). </li>
<li>After Capital Group's recent selldown<a href="https://www.mining.com/web/fortescue-investor-seeks-to-sell-1-3-billion-worth-of-shares/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fortescue Metals (FMG AU)</a> looks attractive (with a trailing dividend yield of 11% and 6.5x PE) and could be worth exploring. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore bounced from the 100 USD/ton level and has maintained a rangebound level between 95 and 130 USD/ton for the last three years.
Inventories at the ports continued to increase, surpassing 150 million tons, representing about 38 days of inventory (normalized levels around 35 days). 
After Capital Group's recent selldown, Fortescue Metals (FMG AU) looks attractive (with a trailing dividend yield of 11% and 6.5x PE) and could be worth exploring. 


Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose 1.8% last week, maintaining levels above $100/MT due to positive sentiment from potential Chinese stimulus measures.</li>
<li>The volume put/call ratio for FEF options last week increased to 1.23, reflecting renewed put activity despite positive price action.</li>
<li>Implied volatility (IV) remained largely flat last week. Despite continued interest in put options, IV skew declined suggesting puts became relatively cheaper.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose 1.8% last week, maintaining levels above $100/MT due to positive sentiment from potential Chinese stimulus measures.
The volume put/call ratio for FEF options last week increased to 1.23, reflecting renewed put activity despite positive price action.
Implied volatility (IV) remained largely flat last week. Despite continued interest in put options, IV skew declined suggesting puts became relatively cheaper.


[Iron Options Weekly 2024/31] Small Price Recovery in Iron Ore Following China Stimulus Measures

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul><li>Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.</li><li>Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.</li><li>Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic's ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic's ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>Weakness Persists: Iron ore prices hovered at critical support level of $100/ton on consistent ample supply &amp; weak demand driven by China's slowing manufacturing sector.</li>
<li>Options Market Shift: Despite overall bearish sentiment, the options market showed increased call activity, particularly for front-month expiries, indicating potential short-term bullish speculation.</li>
<li>Production &amp; Supply Outlook: Major producers like Vale &amp; Rio Tinto are expected to increase iron ore output, contributing to a bearish outlook due to ample supply in global markets.</li>
</ul>


Weakness Persists: Iron ore prices hovered at critical support level of $100/ton on consistent ample supply &amp; weak demand driven by China's slowing manufacturing sector.
Options Market Shift: Despite overall bearish sentiment, the options market showed increased call activity, particularly for front-month expiries, indicating potential short-term bullish speculation.
Production &amp; Supply Outlook: Major producers like Vale &amp; Rio Tinto are expected to increase iron ore output, contributing to a bearish outlook due to ample supply in global markets.


[IO Weekly 2024/30] China’s Manufacturing Slowdown & Strong Supply Continue to Pressure Iron Ore

<ul>
<li>The lack of specific stimulus from China's 3rd plenary meeting and minor rate cuts led to a 2.5% decline in iron ore prices, highlighting market disappointment.</li>
<li>Despite a 13.7% MoM increase in iron ore imports, market concerns arise from stockpile accumulation rather than domestic consumption, suggesting potential future import slowdown.</li>
<li>SGX Iron Ore options showed a bearish trend with a weekly volume put/call ratio of 2.1 and notable put option increases for September and October expiries, indicating market pessimism.</li>
</ul>


The lack of specific stimulus from China's 3rd plenary meeting and minor rate cuts led to a 2.5% decline in iron ore prices, highlighting market disappointment.
Despite a 13.7% MoM increase in iron ore imports, market concerns arise from stockpile accumulation rather than domestic consumption, suggesting potential future import slowdown.
SGX Iron Ore options showed a bearish trend with a weekly volume put/call ratio of 2.1 and notable put option increases for September and October expiries, indicating market pessimism.


[Iron Options Weekly 2024/29] China’s Plenary Meeting and Rate Cut Fail to Enthuse Iron Ore Markets

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports

With iron ore continuing to remain rangebound between 95-130 USD/ton for the last 3 years (with minor overshoots), we summarize actionable ideas in...

Sameer Taneja

[Iron Options Weekly 2024/31] Small Price Recovery in Iron Ore Following China Stimulus Measures

Iron ore prices experienced a modest recovery, buoyed by anticipated Chinese stimulus. However, options markets suggest put activity remains...

Mint Finance

Miners at Peak Risk/Reward

Champion Iron Ore is a premium iron ore producer gaining attention, while Adriatic Metals faces challenges in ramping up production at their Vares...

Money of Mine

[IO Weekly 2024/30] China’s Manufacturing Slowdown & Strong Supply Continue to Pressure Iron Ore

Iron ore weakness persists with prices stable around $100 amidst China's manufacturing slowdown, increased call activity in the options market, and...

Mint Finance

[Iron Options Weekly 2024/29] China’s Plenary Meeting and Rate Cut Fail to Enthuse Iron Ore Markets

China's recent economic measures failed to lift iron ore markets following disappointing 3rd plenary meeting. Despite a rate cut and increased...

Mint Finance

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