Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the settlement of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> shares from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s in-specie dividend, nearly all the shares are now in CCASS. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> has underperformed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> by nearly 50% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> by 27% since the announcement of the in-specie dividend.</li>
<li>Short interest is higher over the last couple of months but is far lower than the selling that could come through, especially on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a> holding.</li>
</ul>


Following the settlement of Meituan (3690 HK) shares from Tencent (700 HK)'s in-specie dividend, nearly all the shares are now in CCASS. 

Meituan (3690 HK) has underperformed Tencent (700 HK) by nearly 50% and Alibaba Group (9988 HK) by 27% since the announcement of the in-specie dividend.
Short interest is higher over the last couple of months but is far lower than the selling that could come through, especially on the Prosus (PRX NA) holding.


Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science &amp; Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.
2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. 


Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) - 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

Wharf Real Estate Investment C / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.</li>
<li>March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 


Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) - Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSCEI Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>According to our estimation, there could be two changes for the HSCEI in June 2023 and there could be one-way index flows of US$585mn.</li>
<li>The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSCEI Index in June 2023.
According to our estimation, there could be two changes for the HSCEI in June 2023 and there could be one-way index flows of US$585mn.
The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-May 2023.


Quiddity Flow Expectations HSCEI Jun 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Possible; Capping Flows US$585mn One-Way

China Resources Beer Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.</li>
<li>291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  


China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - Target Achieved - 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

All Meituan stock from Tencent's distribution is in CCASS. Prosus has likely started to sell stock; shorts are small compared to the Prosus...

Brian Freitas

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) - 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) - Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Quiddity Flow Expectations HSCEI Jun 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Possible; Capping Flows US$585mn One-Way

According to my estimates based on the latest available data, Yum China and BeiGene are ADDs and Country Garden Holdings and Country Garden...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - Target Achieved - 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT