Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company's strategy of premiumisation continues to be executed to plan</li>
<li>Despite the derating, investors will wait until seeing concrete signs of a turn in the Chinese consumer</li>
<li>Continues to be a liquid proxy for Chinese consumption with no technology regulation risk</li>
</ul>


The company's strategy of premiumisation continues to be executed to plan
Despite the derating, investors will wait until seeing concrete signs of a turn in the Chinese consumer
Continues to be a liquid proxy for Chinese consumption with no technology regulation risk


China Resources Beer Holdings - Interim Results Show Progress but Macro Headwinds Remain

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>With fewer young people and a growing number of older adults, the target market for alcoholic beverages is shrinking in many markets including China.</li>
<li>Upsides from vertical integration could give <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> a significant cost advantage over local competitors. Strong pricing power can allow it to decide whether to prioritize growth or margins.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
With fewer young people and a growing number of older adults, the target market for alcoholic beverages is shrinking in many markets including China.
Upsides from vertical integration could give Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) a significant cost advantage over local competitors. Strong pricing power can allow it to decide whether to prioritize growth or margins.


Consumer Tales Aug Wk#4: Beer in China, Ola's Path to Profits, Kalyan Jewellers' Quiet Confidence

<ul>
<li>Stock valuations for China's top beer players are near historical lows, but is a recovery on the horizon? Will it ever return to the heady valuations of 2019-2020?</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/budweiser-brewing-co-apac-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28077:1" rel="noopener">Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)</a> have reported 1H2024 results showing a decline in sales volumes, attributed to several short term factors.</li>
<li>We highlight long-term factors, including an aging population and shifting consumer habits, that could limit sustained growth in China's alcoholic beverage market.</li>
</ul>


Stock valuations for China's top beer players are near historical lows, but is a recovery on the horizon? Will it ever return to the heady valuations of 2019-2020?

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK) have reported 1H2024 results showing a decline in sales volumes, attributed to several short term factors.
We highlight long-term factors, including an aging population and shifting consumer habits, that could limit sustained growth in China's alcoholic beverage market.


Beer in China: 1H2024 Low Point—What Lies Ahead?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>CR Beer unveiled its 1H24 results. During the period, revenue and NP missed the market consensus by 7% and 3%, respectively, mainly due to the shrinking sales volume of mainstream beer driven by unfavorable macroeconomic and weather conditions, as well as a high base.</li><li>Management expects a low-singledigit decline in total beer sales volume but positive net profit growth for 2024, supported by gross margin expansion and operational expense control.</li><li>Beer premiumization continues despite overall consumption downgrading trend. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CR Beer unveiled its 1H24 results. During the period, revenue and NP missed the market consensus by 7% and 3%, respectively, mainly due to the shrinking sales volume of mainstream beer driven by unfavorable macroeconomic and weather conditions, as well as a high base.Management expects a low-singledigit decline in total beer sales volume but positive net profit growth for 2024, supported by gross margin expansion and operational expense control.Beer premiumization continues despite overall consumption downgrading trend. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) - 1H24 Rev/NP -0.5%/+1.2%; Earnings Missed with Beer Premiumization Continues

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-brewery-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8837:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Brewery Co A (600132 CH)</a> announced a impressive earnings beat last night, with net profit up 24% yoy in 2Q23.  Stock is limit up (10%) today.</li>
<li>The results confirm the premiumization thesis of the China beer sector is in tact. </li>
<li>Buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>; take advantage of the overall H-share market weakness and unfounded fear on deflation.    </li>
</ul>



Chongqing Brewery Co A (600132 CH) announced a impressive earnings beat last night, with net profit up 24% yoy in 2Q23.  Stock is limit up (10%) today.
The results confirm the premiumization thesis of the China beer sector is in tact. 
Buy China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK); take advantage of the overall H-share market weakness and unfounded fear on deflation.    


Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH) Limit Up 10% Today After Results Beat; Buy China Resources Beer

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

China Resources Beer Holdings - Interim Results Show Progress but Macro Headwinds Remain

With the stock down 9% today and at a good technical support level, it is worth revisiting this large-cap, index Chinese consumption play. A...

Rikki Malik

Consumer Tales Aug Wk#4: Beer in China, Ola's Path to Profits, Kalyan Jewellers' Quiet Confidence

Weekly update includes note on Beer in China, Ola Electric's path to profitability and Kalyan Jewellers decision to buy stake from Warburg Pincus

Devi Subhakesan

Beer in China: 1H2024 Low Point—What Lies Ahead?

Longer term outlook for volume growth is rather bleak for beer in China. Hence, it is unlikely that China beer companies return to the heady sector...

Devi Subhakesan

CR Beer (291 HK) - 1H24 Rev/NP -0.5%/+1.2%; Earnings Missed with Beer Premiumization Continues

Management expects a low-singledigit decline in total beer sales volume but positive net profit growth for 2024, supported by gross margin...

CMB International

Chongqing Brewery (600132 CH) Limit Up 10% Today After Results Beat; Buy China Resources Beer

Chongqing Brewery Co A (600132 CH) announced a big earnings beat last night, with net profit up 24% yoy in 2Q23. Stock is limit up (10%) today. ...

Steve Zhou, CFA

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