Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Markets will likely look at Jan's TSF data in a favorable light. The record loan growth was particularly encouraging, despite being boosted by a degree of bank credit reintermediation.</li>
<li>Corporate lending was robust, driven concurrently by a surge in long-term loans and working capital financing. However, the outlook for mortgages remains grim. Consumers appear unmoved by falling home prices.</li>
<li>We believe the PBOC's easing bias will continue. A cut in the 5-year LPR may be the next sensible move. RRR cuts, while possible in 2023, may cause longer-term pain.</li>
</ul>


Markets will likely look at Jan's TSF data in a favorable light. The record loan growth was particularly encouraging, despite being boosted by a degree of bank credit reintermediation.
Corporate lending was robust, driven concurrently by a surge in long-term loans and working capital financing. However, the outlook for mortgages remains grim. Consumers appear unmoved by falling home prices.
We believe the PBOC's easing bias will continue. A cut in the 5-year LPR may be the next sensible move. RRR cuts, while possible in 2023, may cause longer-term pain.


China Macro: A Blowout Month for New Loans, but Consumers Remain Timid

<ul>
<li>The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. </li>
<li>The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.</li>
<li>A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.</li>
</ul>


The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. 
The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.
A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.


China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Resources Beer Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. </li>
<li>January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.


China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

Zhejiang HangKe Technology  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.</li>
<li>688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.


Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) - Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: A Blowout Month for New Loans, but Consumers Remain Timid

New loans totaled a whopping CNY4.9 trillion in Jan. Overall, the surge in corporate lending was solid. The outlook is much grimmer for mortgages....

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

Inflation data for Jan, while slightly softer than expected, should be encouraging in that we've not had such high visibility for a long time in...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) - Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT