Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.</li>
<li>If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.</li>
<li>In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.</li>
</ul>


Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.
If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.
In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.


China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.</li>
<li>At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.</li>
<li>Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.</li>
</ul>


On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.
At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.
Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.


Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

<ul>
<li>The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.</li>
<li>The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.</li>
<li>It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The recent rollout of a tax-deferred individual pension scheme marks a pivotal moment in the country's preparation for seismic shifts in its demographics.
The transition towards Pillar 3 of the retirement system has important implications for global asset allocators' long-term China investment thesis.
It's still early days, but there are ways to participate in the growth of private pensions. We look at the scale of the opportunities available and the potential beneficiaries.


China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> is one of the most widely discussed indices in the Hang Seng Indices family.</li>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of "Mainland" Securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a brief look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) is one of the most widely discussed indices in the Hang Seng Indices family.
The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of "Mainland" Securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a brief look at the selection criteria and the historical price performance of past Rebalance Events.


Quiddity Primer for HSCEI Rebalance Events

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 12 January.</li>
<li>There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.

PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

Laos' spiraling debt crisis has once again put China's BRI program under public scrutiny. The outlook for the landlocked nation is looking grimmer...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation have delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

China's Fledgling Pensions Market: Are You Positioned to Cash In?

China's aging population has captured investors' attention of late. What opportunities will shifting demographics bring to the fledgling private...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Quiddity Primer for HSCEI Rebalance Events

We evaluated the price and volume performance of 172 past HSCEI Rebalance cases (ADDs and DELs) from September 2008 to December 2022. We believe...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas