Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. </li>
<li>The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.</li>
<li>A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.</li>
</ul>


The slightly weaker-than-expected inflation numbers for Jan represent a delay and not a detour from the broader reopening story. Investors will likely benefit from improved visibility in the months ahead. 
The recovery in the PPI has been dragged by upward sticky factory gate prices for smaller producers downstream. This is consistent with our analysis of the Jan PMI.
A sustained improvement in consumer activity will likely drive PPI up to 0% and CPI to 2.5% by March.


China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

China Resources Beer Holdings / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. </li>
<li>January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.


China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

Zhejiang HangKe Technology  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.</li>
<li>688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.


Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) - Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

China Longyuan Power / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>January 2023 confirmed a high probability bullish outlook when all 3 pillars were definitively triggered. </li>
<li>Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has an incredible multi-year history of confirming large upswings in 916 HK. January completed the 5th such bullish confirmation since 2014. Multi-month target at 12.945. </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
January 2023 confirmed a high probability bullish outlook when all 3 pillars were definitively triggered. 
Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has an incredible multi-year history of confirming large upswings in 916 HK. January completed the 5th such bullish confirmation since 2014. Multi-month target at 12.945. 


China Longyuan Power (916 HK) - High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

China Macro: Jan CPI / PPI | Much Better Visibility Ahead

Inflation data for Jan, while slightly softer than expected, should be encouraging in that we've not had such high visibility for a long time in...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) - ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) - Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

China Longyuan Power (916 HK) - High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation have delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA