Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

<ul>
<li>The PBOC has extended the use of its policy tools to support the green loan industry as part of the country's' drive towards carbon neutrality.</li>
<li>China's green loan market is already the largest in the world, if you agree with its definitions and can look past its limitations.</li>
<li>The state of green finance matters to investors, and not just those with explicit ESG mandates. We look at the potential pitfalls in the China.</li>
</ul>


The PBOC has extended the use of its policy tools to support the green loan industry as part of the country's' drive towards carbon neutrality.
China's green loan market is already the largest in the world, if you agree with its definitions and can look past its limitations.
The state of green finance matters to investors, and not just those with explicit ESG mandates. We look at the potential pitfalls in the China.


China's Green Loan Market: Fifty Shades of Green

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in March 2023.</li>
<li>According to our estimation, there could be one change for the HSCEI in March 2023 and there could be one-way index flows of US$440mn.</li>
<li>The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in March 2023.
According to our estimation, there could be one change for the HSCEI in March 2023 and there could be one-way index flows of US$440mn.
The final index changes along with indicative capping and index weights could be published in Mid/Late-February 2023 and implemented in early-March 2023.


Quiddity Flow Expectations HSCEI Mar 23: One Change + Caps for Meituan, Alibaba, and Tencent

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.</li>
<li>If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.</li>
<li>In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.</li>
</ul>


Laos' public debt has likely exceeded USD20 billion, or 120% of its GDP. China's share could be as high as USD12.3 billion, making it the largest creditor nation.
If the debt concession Beijing offered to Sri Lanka this week is any guide, Laos could still avert a full-blown sovereign default.
In return, Vientiane may have to grant its northern neighbor additional tax exemptions and greater access to strategic industries. This may all be part of the BRI playbook.


China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.</li>
<li>At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.</li>
<li>Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.</li>
</ul>


On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.
At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.
Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.


Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

China's Green Loan Market: Fifty Shades of Green

The PBOC is stepping up its efforts to channel financing to "green" industries. But how green is green? The answer may have implications for...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Quiddity Flow Expectations HSCEI Mar 23: One Change + Caps for Meituan, Alibaba, and Tencent

In terms of days-to-trade, only the Expected ADD China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) with 1.75 days to buy and Expected DEL China Feihe (6186 HK)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China's BRI Ambition: Could Laos Be the Next One to Fall?

Laos' spiraling debt crisis has once again put China's BRI program under public scrutiny. The outlook for the landlocked nation is looking grimmer...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation have delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT