Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape.</li><li>This week will be all about inflation technicalities, as both BLS and Eurostat will update the inflation weightings for 2024 on Friday for US CPI and German HICP, respectively.</li><li>The US is looking VERY solid when scraping the headline numbers on everything from the labor market to PMIs, but some of the strength is simply manufactured in a spreadsheet, leaving us with an iffy gut feeling about what will come later this year.</li></ul>

Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape.This week will be all about inflation technicalities, as both BLS and Eurostat will update the inflation weightings for 2024 on Friday for US CPI and German HICP, respectively.The US is looking VERY solid when scraping the headline numbers on everything from the labor market to PMIs, but some of the strength is simply manufactured in a spreadsheet, leaving us with an iffy gut feeling about what will come later this year.

5 Things We Watch – Inflation updates, Labor Market, Oil, Chinese equities & Growth

<ul><li>This week will bring about a tonne of revisions- and weight updates in inflation numbers from the statistical bureaus on both sides of the pond.</li><li>The following tradable conclusions are relevant to mention upfront:– There are no reasons to expect seasonal adjustments to lead to a large upside surprise in January inflation in 2024.</li><li>– January key figures, as in 2023, have led to a hawkish repricing of the central bank outlook based on weaknesses in SA filters.</li></ul>

This week will bring about a tonne of revisions- and weight updates in inflation numbers from the statistical bureaus on both sides of the pond.The following tradable conclusions are relevant to mention upfront:– There are no reasons to expect seasonal adjustments to lead to a large upside surprise in January inflation in 2024.– January key figures, as in 2023, have led to a hawkish repricing of the central bank outlook based on weaknesses in SA filters.

Inflation Watch: Adjusting for revisions, tax, seasonality and sunspots

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.</li><li>There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.</li><li>Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The firm USD is consolidating its recent gains.There was some drift in the overall performance of the USD (DXY) through Asian and early European trading but the index has rebounded into the start of North American trade to near yesterday’s peak in the index near 104.60.Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.</li>
<li>As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.</li>
<li>This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.</li>
</ul>


The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments.
As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth, moderating inflation, and evolving liquidity dynamics, investors and policymakers alike stand at a crossroads.
This month’s ‘Macro Regime Indicator’ questions the endurance of the current (US) economic strength and its implications for inflation and asset allocation.


Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

<ul><li>The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.</li><li>Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.</li><li>March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD rallied hard on the back of Friday’s US jobs data as US yields popped sharply higher and the currency has built on those gains early Monday following Fed Chairman Powell’s “60 Minutes” interview last night (pre-recorded ahead of the NFP data) which further doused market expectations for a March rate cut.Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that inflation is moving lower in a sustainable way by March.March swaps reflect just 4bps of easing now, with a full 25bps cut not reflected in OIS pricing until June. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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5 Things We Watch – Inflation updates, Labor Market, Oil, Chinese equities & Growth

Welcome back to another ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we cover some of the things we look at in the current macro landscape. This week will be all...

Steno Research

Inflation Watch: Adjusting for revisions, tax, seasonality and sunspots

This week will bring about a tonne of revisions- and weight updates in inflation numbers from the statistical bureaus on both sides of the...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Consolidates Gains

Stocks are mixed to a little firmer on the session while bond yields have edged fractionally higher (European debt is underperforming marginally).

Scotiabank

Macro Regime Indicator: Time to Embrace a New Economic Dawn?

The recent performance of the US economy prompts a reassessment of long-held market sentiments. As we witness an intersection of sturdy growth,...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Recovery Extends on Higher US Yields

Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job is not done” and reiterated that policymakers may not have enough confidence that...

Scotiabank

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)