Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe.</li><li>It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher than USD 5-6k prices in Europe.</li><li>We also see slight increases in the China to US route.</li></ul>

The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe.It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher than USD 5-6k prices in Europe.We also see slight increases in the China to US route.

Suez Watch: Is the peak in freight rates in?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again</li><li>The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflation</li><li>The Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues</li></ul>

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries againThe ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflationThe Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via the Dutch Direct Auction on Tuesday 6 February.</li><li>Re-openings during the course of the year are expected to raise the outstanding amount to EUR 12bn.</li><li>The Dutch preliminary funding need for this year amounts to EUR 75.7bn, with total bond funding target set at EUR 40bn, down from EUR 46.3bn in 2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via the Dutch Direct Auction on Tuesday 6 February.Re-openings during the course of the year are expected to raise the outstanding amount to EUR 12bn.The Dutch preliminary funding need for this year amounts to EUR 75.7bn, with total bond funding target set at EUR 40bn, down from EUR 46.3bn in 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.</li><li>We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.</li><li>We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.</li></ul>

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the major currencies.</li><li>Gains in the dollar index (DXY) peaked around 103.8 yesterday, equating to a retest of last week’s high.</li><li>The turn lower in the index tilts short-term technical risks to the downside and a test of the 103 area but whether the markets can muster the momentum to push lower ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision remains to be seen. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the major currencies.Gains in the dollar index (DXY) peaked around 103.8 yesterday, equating to a retest of last week’s high.The turn lower in the index tilts short-term technical risks to the downside and a test of the 103 area but whether the markets can muster the momentum to push lower ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision remains to be seen. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Suez Watch: Is the peak in freight rates in?

The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe. It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher...

Steno Research

G3 Watch: Timing the first rate cut

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again. The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have...

Steno Research

Bond Watch: Dutch Pick-Up

The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via theDutch Direct Auctionon...

Nordea

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook. We...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Slips on Lower Yields

The USD remains range-bound in broad terms and is trading mixed on the session again in the absence of a stronger sense of direction across the...

Scotiabank

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