Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Expectation of a 25 basis point cut from the ECB with a focus on delivering on that commitment</li><li>Market pricing in an incomplete cutting cycle, with potential for further easing depending on inflation dynamics</li><li>Long duration valuations attractive in both short and intermediate sectors of the curve, with limited risk of a significant sell-off.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Expectation of a 25 basis point cut from the ECB with a focus on delivering on that commitmentMarket pricing in an incomplete cutting cycle, with potential for further easing depending on inflation dynamicsLong duration valuations attractive in both short and intermediate sectors of the curve, with limited risk of a significant sell-off.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets

<ul>
<li>Dollar long positions have been reduced by 40% since the end of May, leading to a weakening dollar and higher US yields</li>
<li>Market focus is shifting to the US with upcoming events like payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting, where inflation and Fed projections will be key factors in determining FX trades</li>
<li>Potential for changes in Fed's dot projections and neutral rate could also impact market reactions to FOMC meeting outcomes</li>
</ul>
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Dollar long positions have been reduced by 40% since the end of May, leading to a weakening dollar and higher US yields
Market focus is shifting to the US with upcoming events like payrolls, CPI, and FOMC meeting, where inflation and Fed projections will be key factors in determining FX trades
Potential for changes in Fed's dot projections and neutral rate could also impact market reactions to FOMC meeting outcomes

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: G10 Central Bank Meetings and Read-Across for Currencies

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.</li><li>That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.</li><li>The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.</li></ul>

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets.That is until two weeks ago when the USD/YEN breakout caught the imagination and became the centre of all things foreign exchange. Bonds &amp; short-term interest rates have been the macro focus of 2022.The extent to which US bond yields have risen signals that the bond sell-off is not about to end despite the inverted yield curve. It is likely to cause more pain for EM countries.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>During the period under consideration, i.e. February 28th , 2024 to March 29th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 160.55 and 165.17.</li><li>The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first two weeks, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady movement until it crossed over again on March 22nd MA-20 line retained upward trend throughout the entire period.</li><li>Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving downwards at the beginning of the period under consideration but after March 12th the movement changed to the opposite direction.</li></ul>

During the period under consideration, i.e. February 28th , 2024 to March 29th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 160.55 and 165.17.The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first two weeks, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady movement until it crossed over again on March 22nd MA-20 line retained upward trend throughout the entire period.Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving downwards at the beginning of the period under consideration but after March 12th the movement changed to the opposite direction.

Comment on Exchange Rate - EUR/JPY - March 29, 2024

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Global Rates : A Round up of Hot Topics for European Rate Markets

The upcoming meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point cut, with increases in core inflation projections for 2025 and potentially...

At Any Rate

Global FX: G10 Central Bank Meetings and Read-Across for Currencies

The dollar has weakened as investors reduce long positions, and market focus shifts to upcoming US data and the Federal Reserve's actions.

At Any Rate

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

A powder keg

While much focus has been on EURO/USD cross, Asian currencies haven’t seen that much focus due to range-bound markets. That is until two weeks ago...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Comment on Exchange Rate - EUR/JPY - March 29, 2024

During the period under consideration, i.e. February 28th , 2024 to March 29th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 160.55 and 165.17.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)