Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Markets experienced significant volatility in response to comments from New York Fed presidents and Governor Waller, resulting in pricing of around 30 basis points for the September meeting</li><li>Labor market data suggests softening, with revisions showing a decline in private sector payroll growth, indicating a shift towards imminent Fed easing</li><li>Opportunities in Treasuries lie in steepeners, with a focus on front end steepening and potential for further broadening of the steepening trend as the Fed moves towards easing.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Markets experienced significant volatility in response to comments from New York Fed presidents and Governor Waller, resulting in pricing of around 30 basis points for the September meetingLabor market data suggests softening, with revisions showing a decline in private sector payroll growth, indicating a shift towards imminent Fed easingOpportunities in Treasuries lie in steepeners, with a focus on front end steepening and potential for further broadening of the steepening trend as the Fed moves towards easing.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX & Rates: US rates and FX market after a rollercoaster Friday

<ul><li>The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.</li><li>Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.</li><li>Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The biggest shift in FX markets is a lower range of interest rates in the US, signaling a regime shift towards Fed rate cuts.Dollar strength is diminishing due to lower rates and softer US inflation, impacting carry trades and high yield currencies.Euro-Dollar may benefit from lower yields, but its upside potential is uncertain amidst ongoing market volatility and economic uncertainty.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul><li>Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not!</li><li>It will take quite a shock quite soon to realise the ECB pricing for this year. We recommend paying the front ECB contracts.</li><li>One thing is the Fed pricing. It was a US recession scare after all. But the ECB pricing? </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not!It will take quite a shock quite soon to realise the ECB pricing for this year. We recommend paying the front ECB contracts.One thing is the Fed pricing. It was a US recession scare after all. But the ECB pricing? Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul>
<li>During the period under consideration, i.e. July 17th, 2024 to August 16th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.</li>
<li>In the beginning, it faced a general decrease, until August 2nd where the pair faced a sharp increase.</li>
<li>After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level than July 17th.</li>
</ul>


During the period under consideration, i.e. July 17th, 2024 to August 16th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.
In the beginning, it faced a general decrease, until August 2nd where the pair faced a sharp increase.
After that, it fluctuated sideways and by the end of the period the pair traded at a higher level than July 17th.


Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD August 16, 2024

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.</li><li>Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. </li><li>At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As domestically focused sectors underperformed, we cut our FY24/25 EPS growth est. to 2.4%/9.3% and JCI FY24-end target to 7,448.Despite still muted growth indicators, we expect seasonal tailwinds to benefit certain sectors (e.g., Retail, Consumer) in 4Q24. At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Global FX & Rates: US rates and FX market after a rollercoaster Friday

The August employment report caused volatility in interest rate markets, with expectations for easing shifting and market dynamics favoring front...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Summertime sadness for USD as yields drag

In summary, lower interest rates in the US are leading to uncertainty in the currency markets, with dollar strength being challenged by weakening...

At Any Rate

EUR rates: Paying the front

Most risky assets have recovered the lost ground from the US recession scare. Central bank pricing has not! It will take quite a shock quite soon...

Nordea

Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/USD August 16, 2024

During the period under consideration, i.e. July 17th, 2024 to August 16th, 2024, the EUR/USD pair posted both downward and upward swings.

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Equity Strategy: Attractive Valuation Emerging, Prefer Quality Stocks and USD Hedge...

At a forward P/E of 11.9x, JCI valuation is attractive (160bps spread vs. 10-yr yield); amid macro risks, we favor quality stocks and USD hedge.

BRI Danareksa Research

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