Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower.</li>
<li>It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place.</li>
<li>While the mass media is already calling for an end of the commodity bull market, I do think that we only see a correction, which we can use for re-entries in commodities with structural supply problems.</li>
</ul>


The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower.
It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place.
While the mass media is already calling for an end of the commodity bull market, I do think that we only see a correction, which we can use for re-entries in commodities with structural supply problems.


Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will deflate inflation expectations.</li>
<li>Metals leading commodities lower with bounce support approaching with agriculture just cracking key supports. Weakness would ease inflation expectations and help spur a July/August choppy recovery.</li>
<li>Cycle: Late June low re test ahead of early July bounce only to wobble into the Fed. Post Fed more bullish in August ahead of the bearish September/October period.</li>
</ul>


WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will deflate inflation expectations.
Metals leading commodities lower with bounce support approaching with agriculture just cracking key supports. Weakness would ease inflation expectations and help spur a July/August choppy recovery.
Cycle: Late June low re test ahead of early July bounce only to wobble into the Fed. Post Fed more bullish in August ahead of the bearish September/October period.


Oil and Agri Rolling over Will Impact Yield and Deflate Inflation Expectations

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).</li>
<li>There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.</li>
<li>The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.</li>
</ul>


We remain bearish as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on the SPX and NDX (QQQ), and as long as the 7.5-month downtrend remains intact on the Russell 2000(IWM).
There is potential for a bounce given the SPX, QQQ, and IWM are all at downtrend channel supports.
The continued rise of the U.S. dollar (DXY), 10-yr Treasury yield, and WTI crude oil is what we believe is fueling the bear market in equities.


Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Emerging trends and dynamics across international markets coupled with the BoJ's policy are lining up to support the Nikkei 225</li>
<li>Historical comparisons, if correct, also indicate a strong bounce. The price action on the Nikkei 225 itself is also bullish.</li>
<li>At this stage in a volatile market we remain fixed on short term dynamics and refrain from longer term outlooks where conviction still neds to be built</li>
</ul>


Emerging trends and dynamics across international markets coupled with the BoJ's policy are lining up to support the Nikkei 225
Historical comparisons, if correct, also indicate a strong bounce. The price action on the Nikkei 225 itself is also bullish.
At this stage in a volatile market we remain fixed on short term dynamics and refrain from longer term outlooks where conviction still neds to be built


<ul>
<li>Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week</li>
<li>Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low</li>
<li>Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone</li>
</ul>


Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023, it is quite clear what the main story was this week
Russia cut up to 60% of its gas flows to Germany. It will become very hard for Europe to get over the next winter if gas flows remain that low
Rate hiking cycles end when the Fed Funds target rate catches up to where the 2-year T-Note yield has already gone


The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Commodity Report #57

The benchmark, CRB Commodity Index, ended the week 3,4% lower It was a tough week for investors who have long positions on commodities in place....

The Commodity Report

Oil and Agri Rolling over Will Impact Yield and Deflate Inflation Expectations

WTI support breach insight on June 19 outlined the break of support and bias to pressure 105 pivot support. Oil and Agriculture weakness will...

Thomas Schroeder

Downgrading Materials; SPX, NDX, Russell 2000 Testing Downtrend Channel Support; Biotech Buys

We remain bearish as long as the 6-8 month downtrends remain intact on the SPX, NDX (QQQ), and RUT (IWM). Bounce potential given SPX, QQQ, and IWM...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225's Comeback

The signs across markets as well as the price action on the Nikkei 225 indicate a decent rally ahead for Japanese equities as the BoJ continues...

Shyam Devani

The Commodity Report: CRB Commodity Index Ended the Week 5.1% Lower

Besides global growth concerns as Central Banks step up their battle against inflation, and China's zero-covid restrictions may stretch into 2023,...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)